National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDICT
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDICT
Product Timestamp: 2013-01-31 17:45 UTC
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856 FXUS63 KICT 311745 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1145 AM CST THU JAN 31 2013 .AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU POLAR AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-24 KT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY EARLY THIS EVENING. TRANSIENT BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. JMC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 AM CST THU JAN 31 2013/ AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FOR TODAY...WITH SOME SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BEGIN VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD. JAKUB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CST THU JAN 31 2013/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGE...TIMING OF POLAR FRONT/TEMPERATURES TODAY. TODAY-SATURDAY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. LIGHT TO MODEST WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE HIGH PLAINS HAS RESULTED IN SOME WARMING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...EVEN SNOW COVERED CENTRAL KANSAS. FRONT AND COLDER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE MORNING WITH MAXS OCCURRING BY MIDDAY AND FALLING THEREAFTER. IT IS A BIT TOUGHER CALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE THE MODERATING WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW WILL AID WARMING BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN SO EXPECT FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK...SO ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE MADE TO MAXS FOR TODAY...THOUGH WILL SHOW A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. TRANSIENT UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LIFT ALONG THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES SO WILL KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE COLD ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT WITH COLDEST MINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TEMPERATURE MODERATION WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...THOUGH EXISTING CENTRAL KANSAS SNOW COVER WILL TEMPER THIS SOMEWHAT. MORE NOTICEABLE WARMING IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY...THOUGH RESIDUAL SNOW COVER WILL STILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY A DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AND BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MID-WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE EARLY FEBRUARY CLIMO. DARMOFAL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 35 12 40 27 / 10 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 32 9 39 25 / 10 0 0 0 NEWTON 32 9 38 26 / 10 0 0 0 ELDORADO 33 9 39 26 / 10 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 36 12 40 27 / 10 0 0 0 RUSSELL 31 11 41 23 / 10 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 33 12 41 23 / 10 0 0 0 SALINA 27 8 37 24 / 10 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 31 8 38 24 / 10 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 38 11 40 27 / 10 0 0 0 CHANUTE 34 8 37 25 / 10 0 0 0 IOLA 31 7 36 25 / 10 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 35 7 40 25 / 10 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$