National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBOX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBOX
Product Timestamp: 2013-01-29 06:57 UTC
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815 FXUS61 KBOX 290657 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 157 AM EST TUE JAN 29 2013 .SYNOPSIS... PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WED WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY SHOWERS WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 130 AM UPDATE... PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN A LITTLE SNOW NOTED AT 06Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPS REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 20S ACROSS INLAND AREAS...TO THE LOWER-MID 30S FROM KBOS THROUGH SE MA TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...EXCEPT NANTUCKET AND BLOCK ISLAND WHICH WERE REPORTING 36 DEGREES. PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. STILL NOTING SOME PATCHY STEADIER PRECIP ON NE REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC RADAR MAINLY ACROSS E MA...WITH A FEW MORE SMALLER AREAS MOVING OUT OF NY STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AS WELL AS LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AROUND 09Z...THEN SHOULD SEE AIRMASS TEND TO DRY OUT WITH MAINLY LIGHT N WINDS. TEMPS/DEWPTS WERE CLOSE TO FORECAST...THOUGH A FEW DEGS LOWER THAN FORECAST IN A FEW LOCATIONS. HAVE UPDATED TO BRING CURRENT. REMAINING GRIDS LOOKED IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST EARLY IN THE MORNING ON TUE. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A CLOUDY BUT RAW DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHEAST WINDS KEEPING OUR REGION TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN PATTERN RECOGNITION AND SHALLOW INVERSION. OPTED TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS 2 METER TEMPERATURE FIELDS. THEREFORE...FEEL MOST OF THE AREA WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BIG PICTURE... THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST AND A SECOND BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST...AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARCTIC ISLANDS DIGS SOUTH TO HUDSONS BAY LATE WEEK PULLING THE TROUGH EAST OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF REGARDING 500 MB FLOW. SURFACE FLOW IS SIMILAR THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN DIFFERENCES EMERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE TEMPERATURES LOOK MILD MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE...BUT THEN SHOULD RETURN TO COLD AGAIN LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE DAILIES... TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY... COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WHILE A 50 KNOT SOUTHWEST JET APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME LIFT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS OF LIFT LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. FIGURE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND IN THIS AREA. A MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL HOLD LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG/DRIZZLE. SOUTH WIND WILL EVENTUALLY DISPLACE THE COLDEST OF THE AIR IN PLACE IN THE EVENING. SO WE EXPECT TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT TO HAVE EVENING MINIMUMS FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING VALUES OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL DEPEND ON ANY BREAKAGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. COLDEST SCENARIO WOULD HAVE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WARMEST SCENARIO WOULD BE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WE STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT... COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG DYNAMICS ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT WITH A 160 KNOT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND RIDING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL BE OVERHEAD LATE NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 1 INCH OR HIGHER...BETTER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...WILL BE DRAWN UP THE COAST BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE LOW-END CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW A THETA-E RIDGE MOVING THROUGH DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUNDER IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY. MODELS ALSO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING UP THE COAST WITH 70- 80 KNOTS AT 925 MB. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL HINDER MOMENTUM TRANSFER...BUT SHOWERS COULD PROVIDE A CONDUIT TO BRING SOME OF THIS WIND TO THE SURFACE. THE JET LOOKS TO MOST AFFECT RI/SOUTHEAST MASS AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH COAST/ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL HILLS COULD ALSO CATCH SOME OF THIS WIND. ANTICIPATE A HEADLINE...WIND ADVISORY OR HIGH WIND WATCH...MAY BE NEEDED. THURSDAY... COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND THE SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE. RISING PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT INCREASED SUSTAINED WIND WHILE RESULTING COLD ADVECTION WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS AND BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WINDS UP THROUGH 850 MB SHOW MAX VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE GUSTS UNDERESTIMATES THESE VALUES...SO WE BUMPED VALUES UP TO AROUND 30. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITH 850 MB TEMPS CHILLING 10-12C IN 12 HOURS. EXPECT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS BY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY-SATURDAY... CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BUT WITH A COLD AND DRYING AIRMASS. SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW CLOUDS EACH DAY BUT NO PCPN EXPECTED. EXCEPTION WOULD BE OFF CAPE COD...TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO RE- ESTABLISH OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MASS COAST. TEMPS ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. WE USED A BLEND OF HPC AND GMOS VALUES. NIGHTTIME MINS FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ON SATURDAY WE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM WITH SAT MORNING MINS. SUNDAY-MONDAY... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW SUNDAY. WE HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THAT PASSAGE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER. SIMILAR COLD TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. OVERVIEW...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THROUGH 12Z...EXPECT MAINLY IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE WITH POCKETS OF LIFR ALONG THE S COAST OF MA AS WELL AS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. LOCAL -FZRA/-FZDZ AND -SN CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS N AND E MA/S NH...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF BY AROUND 09Z-10Z. TODAY...VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR-IFR ALONG THE E COAST AND THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES THROUGH MIDDAY. CIGS WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING THEN SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT BUT REMAIN MVFR. TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VFR VSBYS EARLY...THEN LOWERING TO IFR-LIFR MAINLY IN LOW CIGS. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 3-5SM. -FZRA/-RA MOVES IN FROM W-E AHEAD OF WARM FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANY FREEZING PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. KBOS TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 09Z-10Z IN -SN/-FZDZ...THEN VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 12Z TO VFR. CIGS REMAIN MAINLY MVFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN LOWER TO IFR. KBDL TAF...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 10Z-11Z IN FOG...THEN VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 12Z. CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID MORNING. CIGS LOWER TO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IFR AND LIFR IN LOW CIGS AND FOG/DRIZZLE. INCREASING WINDS AT 2000 FEET AGL DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT BOS-PVD AND THE CAPE/ISLANDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR/LIFR WITH SHOWERS/FOG AND ISOLATED TSTMS. STRONG SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WIND AT 2000 FEET AGL WITH SPEEDS OF 60-80 KTS...MAINLY RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS INCLUDING PVD AND BOS. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WIND SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER THE WIND SHIFT. COLDER TEMPS WILL BRING FREEZING CONDITIONS ON WET SURFACES THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY DIMINISHING SATURDAY. && .MARINE... HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND 5-6 FT. NOTING 7 FOOT SEAS AT BUOY 44017 WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KT AT 03Z. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WE DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME 20-25 KNOT WIND GUSTS DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH SWELL SHOULD BE THERE TO GENERATE SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO SCA HEADLINES REMAIN POSTED. IN ADDITION...VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWERED AT TIMES TO BELOW 1 MILE IN SNOW THROUGH 06Z OR SO. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SOUTH WINDS WITH SPEEDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. SEAS ALSO BUILDING TO 5-9 FEET. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. SOME GUSTS MAY APPROACH STORM FORCE. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE WITH HIGHEST VALUES ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THURSDAY...WIND SHIFTS TO WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WIND GUSTS CONTINUE NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SATURDAY. ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE...BUT WITH A DIMINISHING TREND ON SATURDAY. PATCHES OF FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MAZ002>022-026. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NHZ011-012-015. RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001>007. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ255- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/FRANK NEAR TERM...WTB/FRANK/EVT SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/EVT MARINE...WTB/FRANK/EVT