National Weather Service Raw Text Product

690 
FXUS63 KLSX 261741
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1141 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013
(TODAY)

DRY TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AS THE SFC RIDGE EXTDG FROM MN S INTO MO 
SHIFTS SEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 00Z SUN.  JUST SOME HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TODAY.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ACROSS W CNTRL IL WHERE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST 
WEAK CAA THIS MRNG TO THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND 
SERN MO WHERE THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER AROUND 
4 DEGREES C.

GKS

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

MAIN CONCERN STILL DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR ICE 
ACCUMULATION VERY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  GFS/NAM/ECMWF 
ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW ENTERING THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND 
SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS MO/IL ON SUNDAY. AREA OF PRECIPITATION 
WILL DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS IN RESPONSE 
TO ASCENT FROM THE TROUGH COINCIDING WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG A BROAD LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS 
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO 
LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY MORNING.  
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS FREEZING RAIN AS 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 28-32F RANGE COMPARED TO  
900-800MB TEMPS OF +3C OR GREATER SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  
DRY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME EVAPORATION OF THE 
PRECIPITATION INITIALLY WHICH MAY EAT UP SOME OF THE QPF...BUT THE 
LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL EVENTUALLY SATURATE.  SOME MINOR ICE 
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER 
NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL WHERE UP TO 0.1" IS POSSIBLE.  
GFS/NAM/LOCAL WRF 2M TEMPERATURES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
STEADY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL MO WHERE 
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH.  EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE OF 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WHICH WILL CAUSE THE FREEZING 
PRECIPITATION TO TURN OVER TO LIQUID AFTER 3-6 HOURS...THOUGH STAYED 
COOLER THAN MOS VALUES BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING VERY WARM 
AIR INTO THE AREA FOR LATE JANUARY.  WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL LIE IN A 
RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES MOVING OVER 
US. GFS MOS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES REACH 70 ON MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY...BUT WILL KEEP WITH JUST LOWER-MID 60S BECAUSE OF RAIN 
CHANCES AND CLOUDS.  STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING WHEN BOTH THE 
GFS/ECMWF BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS MO/IL.  THEN WILL KEEP 
DRY FORECAST GOING MID-LATE NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK 
BELOW NORMAL LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE 
850MB TEMPS BETWEEN -10 AND -20C.


BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

VFR AND DRY THRU TONIGHT...EXCEPT PERHAPS -RA BEGINNING AT COU
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS TODAY GENERALLY ELY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS THE SFC RIDGE RETREATS. CIGS WILL
QUICKLY LOWER WITH ONSET OF PRECIP. EXPECT PRECIP TO START AS FZRA
AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT COU WHERE TEMPS SHUD BE ABOVE...ALBEIT
BARELY...ONCE PRECIP BEGINS. ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE TAF...IT APPEARS
UIN SHUD BE ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 18Z SUN. 

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR AND DRY THRU TONIGHT. LIGHT ELY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER THRU THE NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDE RETREATS. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO TIMING FROM PREV TAF. CIGS EXPECTED TO DROP
QUICKLY WITH ONSET OF PRECIP. EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN LIGHT AND
POSSIBLY MORE INTERMITTENT THAN STEADY. RA SHUD COME TO AN END IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

TILLY

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST THU JAN 24 2013

RECORD OR NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BELOW IS A TABLE OF RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD
HIGH MINIMUMS FOR ARE THREE OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATIONS: ST. LOUIS
(STL)...COLUMBIA (COU)...AND QUINCY (UIN):


 		ST. LOUIS

 	HIGH 		HIGH MINIMUM

1/28	76 (1970)	53 (1914)	
1/29	73 (2008)	44 (1947)


 		COLUMBIA

 	HIGH 		HIGH MINIMUM

1/28 	67 (2002) 	53 (1914) 
1/29 	64 (2008) 	44 (1938)


 		QUINCY

 	HIGH 		HIGH MINIMUM

1/28 	63 (1914) 	46 (1914) 
1/29 	63 (1914) 	38 (1989)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR KNOX MO-
     LEWIS MO-MARION MO-SHELBY MO.

IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ADAMS 
     IL-BROWN IL.

&&

$$

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