187 
FXUS64 KMEG 261641
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1041 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WILL
JUST REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CST SAT JAN 26 2013/

WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...A WET GROUND FROM YESTERDAYS
RAIN...AND LIGHT WINDS...AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH UNTIL MID-MORNING. THE FREEZING FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD FOR THOSE PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MS ALONG THE TN RIVER VALLEY...HAVE ISSUED
A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA UNTIL 9 AM. ALSO ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ALERT THOSE NOT IN THE FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FREEZING FOG.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MIDSOUTH WEATHER THIS MORNING WILL 
GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH MS ARE 
EXPECTED TO LIFT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING MID AND HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT TIMES. OVERALL THE SKY
CONDITION WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY CLIMBING TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. 
THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER ESPECIALLY 
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN DEVELOPS. THE WARM FRONT 
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. BY LATE SUNDAY 
NIGHT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ENOUGH ALONG 
AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY 
AND TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. BY TUESDAY...HIGH 
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
MIDSOUTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED 
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...A STRONG LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS
IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...FOR NOW TOOK A COMPROMISE.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ATTM...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS)
POSSIBILITY DEVELOPS. MODEL INSTABILITY IS JUST ADEQUATE BUT
ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD.
GOOD VEERING OF THE WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UPWARD WILL EXIST WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...SO BASED ON
THE LATEST MODELS CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES EMBEDDED IN THE QLCS OR AHEAD OF THE QLCS IN SUPERCELLS.

COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A REINFORCING AND DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BRINGING COLDER AIR.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING PRODUCING MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT KMEM...KMKL AND KTUP. THIS FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FOUND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

ARS

&&


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  54  42  61  56 /   0  20  40  30 
MKL  50  33  57  53 /   0  10  40  30 
JBR  50  37  56  52 /   0  30  40  40 
TUP  55  38  62  51 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$