224 
FXUS63 KEAX 260529
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1129 PM CST Fri Jan 25 2013


...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...


.DISCUSSION...

Tonight - Monday:

The main challenge through the first three days of the forecast deal 
with the potential for a quick shot of freezing rain late Saturday 
night through about noon on Sunday, across mainly the northeastern
half to third of the forecast area.

For Saturday, quiet weather is expected. High pressure will transit 
the area tonight and by Saturday will be east of the region 
resulting in southeasterly winds. This should allow temperatures to 
climb into mid 50s in our southwest. Temperatures may struggle to 
reach the middle 30s in our northeast where cooler temperatures may 
just recirculate from eastern Missouri and central Illinois.

There has been a trend with the latest model runs of warm advection 
occurring faster. This faster warm advection will result in rain
warming the entire column faster leading to a shorter duration of
freezing rain for most locations before transitioning over to just
rain. Forecast soundings still show the sub-freezing temperatures
across the northeastern half to third of the forecast area. Warm
advection rain will overspread the southeastern half of the forecast
area after midnight and then spread northeast through the remainder
of the night and into Sunday morning. The bulk of the freezing rain
will affect our far northeastern counties from around 6 to noon. This
area, including the Kirksville area, will see the longest duration of
freezing rain and therefore the heaviest amounts, which could be up
to 0.15 to 0.20 inches. Temperatures are expected to warm above
freezing around the noon hour in our northeast and bring an end to
the freezing rain potential.

The warm advection looks so strong Sunday that temperatures may warm
into the mid 40 to upper 50s by Monday afternoon. As a result, have
increased high temperatures for the day with the warmest temperatures
in southern and western zones.

CDB

Monday - Friday:

The active pattern over the weekend will persist into next week as 
the weekend shortwave jets to the northeast. This will leave a 
frontal boundary stalled out across Kansas and Missouri at the 
beginning of the work week as the prevailing flow across the Plains 
will still be dominated by a southwest flow thanks to a west CONUS 
trough. Models in this time range are in decent agreement on this 
evolution, so confidence is high that the boundary will lay out 
across Missouri by Monday, however what our potential precipitation 
will be is of modest confidence only. 

Gulf coast will be wide open early next week as the cold surface 
high, that oozed across our region over the weekend, will have moved 
to the east coast. Moisture pooling back to the north may result in 
some showers during the day Monday. Monday night into Tuesday the 
potential for rain will persist as the boundary will likely still be 
stalled out in our vicinity, but the trough across the west CONUS 
will be shifting east slowly. As a result the mean flow will adjust 
from parallel to a bit more perpendicular to the stalled baroclinic 
zone. However, main focus for moisture advection still looks to be 
through southern Missouri into eastern Missouri. So, while a chance 
at storms will persist through Tuesday, and include an isolated 
chance of thunderstorms thanks to some elevated instability, 
precipitation chances remain more focused towards central Missouri 
and parts east and south. The up side for the potential rainy 
beginning of the work week is that temperatures are expected to stay 
warm enough to not worry about any kind of frozen precipitation.  

Wednesday through the end of the work week will see our temperatures 
come back down. The trough that helped focus some moisture return 
early in the week will be shifting through the Plains States by the 
middle of the week, so the south to southwest winds of Monday and 
Tuesday will transit to the northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday 
as the trough axis shifts through the Plains. This should allow some 
more cold Canadian air to sweep south into the Plains, and with a 
1030mb high advertised to be arriving in our area, expectations are 
that temperatures will drop back to a couple categories below normal 
for the end of the work week. 

Cutter

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 06Z TAFs: A weak cold front continues to drop into northern
Missouri out of the northeast, already passing through Kirksville at
midnight. This boundary will settle further southwest through the
overnight hours with variable winds turning northeast before
daybreak.

VFR conditions will prevail through much of Saturday as mid-level
(10K FT AGL) clouds arrive after daybreak. Rain looks to remain just
outside the valid taf period with soundings indicating a rapid
decent towards MVFR/IFR CIGS around 06Z and an earlier onset of
rain. Will introduce SCT040 ft deck to indicate potential increase in
stratus towards the end of the period. 

Dux

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO EAX