223 
FXUS64 KMOB 222104
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
304 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2013

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...22.12Z UPPER AIR MAP 
ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD LONG WAVE HIGH LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. LATEST SOUNDINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES 
LOOK TO BE A CARBON COPY OF WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY WITH
ATMOSPHERE MOSTLY VOID OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AT TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH). AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT HAS
PUSHED SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS MOSTLY CLEAR AND
WEDNESDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO DIP TO AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S TO
CLOSE TO 40 ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IN THE AM...SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON OFF COOLER NEAR SHORE/BAY WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY MAY KEEP BEACH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 60. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE 40S UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND AS AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IN THE AREA...RAINFREE WEATHER TO
PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BECOME A CHALLENGE FOR THURSDAY
ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH GREATER SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MET/MAV SOLUTIONS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF. HAVE GONE IN
BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS HERE FOR HIGHS WITH OFFICIAL NUMBERS RANGING
FROM 65-70. THE WARMER SIDE OF THIS RAINGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...46
TO 52 DEGREES INLAND AREAS...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
10/22

UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SHARPENS ON
FRIDAY AS IT GETS REINFORCED BY A STRONG EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SWINGING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THE 22.12Z GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS OF THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING THE PASSAGE OF AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
MOVING TO OFF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS (30-50%) AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING RESULTS IN A LOWERING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THEN. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY. LOWERING LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTS A CHILLY DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM 53 OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TO MID/UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SIMILAR HIGHS ON SUNDAY. WEEKEND HIGHS WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE OUTLOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...DIPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S. RAINFREE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO OPEN UP AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST BRINGS A RETURN
FLOW OFF THE GULF ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 10/22

&&

.AVIATION [18Z-00Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION]... 
VFR TO CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH FEW-SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT 
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z WED. /21

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND 
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LIGHT TO MODERATE 
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT... 
BUT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GULF. 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE BY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE 
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES 
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO F RIDAY NIGHT...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS UPWARDS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. /21

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING. NO
RAIN FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD DAYTIME
DISPERSION FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY MODERATES. CANNOT RULE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG FORMATION THE
NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      37  65  48  69  52 /  00  00  00  05  10 
PENSACOLA   39  62  49  68  54 /  00  00  00  05  05 
DESTIN      41  60  51  65  53 /  00  00  00  05  10 
EVERGREEN   31  64  42  68  46 /  00  00  00  05  10 
WAYNESBORO  32  65  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  05  10 
CAMDEN      31  62  43  67  48 /  00  00  00  05  10 
CRESTVIEW   30  65  40  70  45 /  00  00  00  05  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$