422 
FXUS63 KMPX 220000
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 PM CST MON JAN 21 2013

.UPDATE...

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 414 PM CST MON JAN 21 2013/

OVERVIEW...NO CHANGES WITH THE WIND CHILL HEADLINES CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT. MAY HAVE A FEW SITES WITH WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN -25
DEGREES WHEN THE HEADLINES DROP OFF AT 9 AM TOMORROW...BUT AFTER
NEARLY TWO FULL DAYS OF WIND HEADLINES DONT THINK AN EXTENSION IS
NEEDED. RAISED POPS IN A FEW SPOTS WITH THURSDAYS CLIPPER
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL
POPS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW FORECASTS IF THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT. COULD SEE 1-2" SNOWFALL NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA...TO ST. CLOUD...TO EAU CLAIRE.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON REMAINED BELOW ZERO IN THE TWIN CITIES
METRO...SO THE STREAK OF 4 YEARS WITHOUT A BELOW ZERO HIGH LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL COME TO AN END. THE WARMEST TEMP AT KMSP ACTUALLY
OCCURRED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD NIGHT IN STORE WITH SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SUNSET ALREADY
WELL BELOW ZERO. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHTER
TONIGHT...BUT WILL PROBABLY NEVER ACTUALLY GO CALM...EVEN IN
WESTERN MN. TRIED TO KEEP THE -20 TO -25 LOW TEMPERATURES CONFINED
TO THE AREAS WITH MORE THAN 1" INCH OF SNOW PACK IN
WESTERN/CENTRAL MN. THE COLDEST GUIDANCE HAS -25 TO -30 IN
PORTIONS OF MN...BUT THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
LOWS IN SOUTHERN CANADA THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ON THURSDAY HAS SLOWED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT FOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW. NOT MUCH WIND IN THE PROFILE WHEN THE SNOW IS FALLING
AND TEMPS/THICKNESS VALUES WOULD PROVIDE 20:1 TYPE RATIOS. BESIDES
THE SLOWER TREND...THE EC/GFS HAVE ALSO TRENDED FARTHER NORTH. GOOD
AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG THE 21.12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN OF
TAKING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AT 00Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY 00Z FRIDAY. THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER BY ALMOST BRINGING
IT INTO MN...BUT IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH DIGGING THE WEDNESDAY
SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND...THE SPREAD OF DPVA AND WARM
ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS INDUCED SNOW DOWNSTREAM IS SLOWER TOO.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LACKING
MOISTURE. ALL THE BETTER MOISTURE IS TIED UP WITH A SOUTHERN
STREAM- TYPE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS ACTUALLY FALL TO AROUND -20C BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO STAY OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
TIME.

IN THE EXTENDED... THERE ARE TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST NEXT WEEKEND ALSO
CONTINUE...SO THE ENSEMBLES ARE PROBABLY THE BEST ROUTE TO FOLLOW
AT THIS POINT. AFTER THE COOL DOWN WITH THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT RIDGING PROVIDES A NICE WARM-UP IN THE
EXTENDED TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE MPX AREA THIS
PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.
MODELS STILL SHOWING MOISTURE AROUND 2K FEET HANGING AROUND ERN
MN/WRN WI THROUGH ABOUT 6Z...SO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE THIN
CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF FINE ICE CRYSTALS THROUGH THEN. AFTER
THAT...FINALLY LOOKS TO DRY TO CREATE ANY LOW CLOUDS OR ICE
CRYSTALS. SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NEB WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NE TUESDAY...WITH AN
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS EXPECTED AS A RESULT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINNING TO RELAX AND AFTER 2Z...WILL SEE SPEEDS REMAIN
UNDER TO 10 KTS WITH ONLY A GRADUAL BACKING OF WINDS TOWARD THE
WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.

KMSP...MAY SEE A GUST OR TWO THROUGH 2Z UP AROUND 20 KTS...BUT
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN AFTER THAT. MAY ALSO SEE A BRIEF MVFR
CIG THROUGH 3Z...BUT NOT EXPECTING SOMETHING LIKE THAT TO LAST
LONG ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT A TEMPO. NO ISSUES EXPECTED WITH REST
OF TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR...FLURRIES POSSIBLE. WINDS W/NW 5-10 KTS. 
THU...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF -SN LATE. WINDS E/SE 5-10 KTS. 
FRI...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF -SN EARLY. WINDS BECOMING NW 10-15
      KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-
     BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
     HENNEPIN-ISANTI-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-
     REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-
     WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BENTON-CHIPPEWA-
     DOUGLAS-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
     MORRISON-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
     DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.

&&

$$

CLF/MPG