529 
FXUS63 KFGF 210331
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
931 PM CST SUN JAN 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MADE A FEW ADDITIONAL TWEAKS TO TEMPS...BUMPING THEM UP A DEGREE
OR TWO IN THE SOUTH. HARD TO TELL THE POSITION OF LINGERING CLOUDS
AS COLD MAKES THE IR ON SAT LOOPS NOT VERY USEFUL. HOWEVER...FROM
SFC OBS IT SEEMS THAT THERE IS AN OVERALL TREND OF DECREASING
CLOUDS IN ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20 BELOW RANGE. WIND CHILLS SHOULD STILL GET BELOW
WARNING LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES PROBABLY WILL NOT
DROP BELOW 40 BELOW UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. 

&&

.AVIATION...

KBJI HAS BEEN REPORTING SOME STRATUS AND FLURRIES...BUT EVERYONE
ELSE HAS BEEN VFR. THINK THAT THE CATEGORY SHOULD IMPROVE AT KBJI
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. THINK THAT THE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 PM CST SUN JAN 20 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...

SENT OUT THE EVENING UPDATE A BIT EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR TEMP TRENDS
AND TO REMOVE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WORDING. TEMPS HAVE BEEN A
BIT SLOW TO FALL OVER THE CENTRAL CWA DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...THINK THAT SKIES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS
AREA. MSAS STILL SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO EASTERN ND WITH THE SECOND COLD SURGE. WILL
LEANED AGAINST THE COLDEST GUIDANCE WHICH HAS US APPROACHING -30
IN THE NORTHWEST BUT CONTINUED TO KEEP LOWS IN THE -20 TO -25
RANGE WITH WIND CHILLS STILL DOWN AROUND -40 TO -50. WILL TAKE A
SECOND LOOK AT THINGS AFTER 03Z TO SEE HOW CLOUDS AND TEMPS ARE
BEHAVING...BUT FOR NOW AM CONTENT TO LET THE WIND CHILL WARNING
CONTINUE AS IT IS.  


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CST SUN JAN 20 2013/ 

SHORT TERM...

THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS WIND CHILL HEADLINES AND HOW LONG THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT MOST NUMERICAL TEMP GUIDANCE IS TOO COLD WITH
WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS ARE ALSO TOO MOIST WITH
HUMIDITY FIELDS GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIR.

FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY...EXPECT SUBZERO TEMPS IN ALL AREAS WITH WINDS
REMAINING IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT
RESULTANT WIND CHILL/APPARENT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40 TO 50
BELOW ZERO RANGE IN ALL AREAS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. HAVE
THEREFORE GONE WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR ALL AREAS 00ZMON-
18ZMON FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ACTUAL AIR TEMPS SHOULD GET
DOWN TO AROUND 20 BELOW FOR MOST AREAS...A BIT COLDER IF MORE DECOUPLING
OCCURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD TONIGHT...THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR. THE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO TRANSITION TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BUT WILL HANDLE WITH LATER SHIFTS AND NOT ISSUE
TOO MANY HEADLINES AT ONCE. 

FOR TUE AND WED...SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
COLDEST AIR MOVES JUST EAST OF THE REGION. IT WILL REMAIN BITTERLY
COLD THOUGH AND TUE MORNING COULD BE EVEN COLDER IF IT REMAINS
CLEAR AND CALM. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW NEAR A
BAROCLINIC ZONE TUE INTO WED IN THE SOUTH AND WEST...BUT FOR NOW
WILL JUST MENTION IN THE FAR SW.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SHOW NEXT SHORT-WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN 
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT 
SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
GFS/GEM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN SLOWER ECMWF/DGEX SOLUTIONS...SO 
WILL KEEP WITH ALL BLEND CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LATE NEXT WEEK INTO 
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY DRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES 
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS 
WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO AND LOWS IN THE 
TEENS BELOW ZERO. EXPECT A BIT OF A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEKEND AS 
INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE ALOFT NUDGES TO THE EAST.         

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$
JR