559 
FXUS61 KBTV 112351
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST FRI JAN 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
AND RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THEN TAPERS OFF TOWARDS
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED IN PARTS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. SATURDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE WARM AND DRY BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 628 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-
LEVEL VORT CENTERED ACROSS FAR SWRN NY STATE...AND THIS FEATURE IS
PRECEDED BY REGION OF 850-700MB WAA ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING IS BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT...WITH BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT
APPEARS PRECIPITATION LARGELY ENDS BY MIDNIGHT...AND WILL REASSESS
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY LATE THIS EVENING BASED ON PRECIPITATION
TRENDS NEXT FEW HRS. 

GENERALLY LOOKING AT LIGHT QPF AMTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
AS FAR AS FREEZING RAIN...THREAT AREA CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY EAST
OF THE GREEN MTNS AND ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS
WHERE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF SUB-FREEZING SFC AIR REMAIN IN PLACE. 
SPRINGFIELD VT REPORTED 0.03" IN THE PAST HOUR WITH TEMP RIGHT AT
32F BETWEEN 5-6PM. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW COLDEST AIR MID-
SLOPE...WITH COMMUNITIES 1-2 KFT ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
GREENS LOCALLY IN THE UPR 20S WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICING THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORIES FOR CENTRAL/ERN VT AND PORTIONS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS
WHERE LOCALIZED SLICK TRAVEL DUE TO ICE IS A THREAT. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY POWER/TREE
ISSUES...SO JUST A CONCERN FOR TRAVELERS OVERNIGHT. WITH SOUTH TO
SW WINDS...TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STEADY OVERNIGHT...AROUND 35-36F IN 
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN...AND GENERALLY
LOW-MID 30S ELSEWHERE WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN. COLDEST READINGS
LOCALLY FROM ISLAND POND TO WALDEN TO CAVENDISH WHERE TEMPS 28-30F
WILL PERSIST THRU MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 355 PM EST FRIDAY...UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
LEAST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAX TEMPS
WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND MIN TEMPS ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S. THESE EXPECTED MIN TEMPS ARE EVEN WARMER THAN NORMAL
MAX TEMPS FOR THIS WEEK. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED. 850 TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS AS REGION IS STILL SOLIDLY
IN THE WARM AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE WEATHER REMAINS
DRY THOUGH CLOUDS INCREASE AS WELL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW. PATCHY FOG
IS AGAIN EXPECTED AS WARM AIR IS OVER EXISTING SNOW COVER THAT
STILL REMAINS. BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL AGAIN BE
RAIN...THOUGH AS WE GET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE TO BE AWARE OF SOME COLDER TEMPS AGAIN IN THE DACKS AND
EAST OF THE GREENS. ALSO...COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...USHERING IN SOME
COLDER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST FRIDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA
EARLY MONDAY. WITH FLOW ALOFT REMAINING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
HOWEVER...NOT LOOKING FOR ANY STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION...OR SIGNIFICANT CLEARING. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES BEFORE
ENDING...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE... DISTURBANCE PASSING OUT WELL TO OUR SOUTH
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN THE AREA...BUT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AS
FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
MONDAY...AND IN THE 30S TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF NORTH COUNTRY WEATHER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES THEN BRINGS CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES NORTH OF FORECAST AREA.
GFS/ECMWF THEN INDICATE A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE
A BIT ON THE TIMING. GFS QUICKER WITH THE SURGE...WITH COLDER AIR
ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY...WHILE ECMWF HOLDS IT BACK UNTIL LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT
AND PERHAPS SOME SQUALLS. MODELS FORECASTING 850 MB TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT NEAR -28C OVER NORTHERN ZONES EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THIS AIR MASS WILL BE
RATHER SHORT LIVED WITH SOME MODERATION EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AS
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE GONE
WELL BELOW A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE COLD
ENOUGH. HAVE CURRENTLY GONE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST FROM THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD ACROSS ALL OF VERMONT THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AT 2000 FEET AVERAGE AROUND 40 KNOTS. AREAS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 06Z...BUT
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AND PRECIPITATION
WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LOOK FOR LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME
FOG TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z WITH CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE
500-1000 FOOT RANGE...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES WITH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR. AFTER 14Z...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
VFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. CHANCE FOR LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN FOG SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR MVFR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

18Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ003-004-
     006>008-010-012.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ030-031-
     034.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS