365 
FXUS63 KOAX 101110
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...TRANSITIONING FROM VFR
CONDITIONS INITIALLY...TO LIFR CONDITIONS BY 11/00-02Z. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CONDITIONS AT 150-250 WILL BECOME 60-80 WITH RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AT KLNK BY 15-17Z...KOMA BY 16-18Z AND KOFK BY 18-20Z.
ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES...CEILINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH WITH MEASURABLE
RAINFALL...BUT EVENTUALLY BECOMING JUST AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
DRIZZLE WITH IFR CONDITIONS BY 20-23Z...THEN LIFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL LIKELY
SEE THESE VERY LOW CEILINGS SCATTER OUT SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WHICH
WOULD BE WELL BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE. WHILE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE
AT KLNK HAD DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 20S EARLY THIS MORNING...IT
SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME THE RAIN DEVELOPS THAT FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. 

DEWALD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013/ 

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE
AND FOG...THEN THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

THE BROAD NRN H3 ANTICYCLONIC JET WAS ARCHING INTO CANADA WITH
THE SRN JET 100KT JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF OVER TEXAS
AND HEADING NORTH. AT H5 THERE WAS A TROF OVER THE WEST COAST...A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. AT H7 AND H85...THE LOW WAS VERTICALLY STACKED.
OF NOTE AT H85 WAS HOW THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WAS
MILD AND FROM THE WEST...WHILE FROM KANSAS SOUTHWARD IT WAS MORE
FROM THE EAST. H85 DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 10DEG C ACROSS PARTS OF
TX AND OK. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WERE LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
WITH VARIABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE FLOW IS
BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO NORTH AT ALL LEVELS AND WSR-88D RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS RAINFALL ECHOES SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS.
THE LIGHTNING WAS MAINLY OVER THE GULF INTO LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI.

OVER THE NEXT 12HRS...THE H5 LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO THE OK/TX
BORDER WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...LIFT...THETA-E ADVECTION
AND DEEP MOISTURE SPREADING INTO NEBRASKA. LOOK FOR THE STEADIER
RAIN TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LNK TO OMAHA...WITH
LIGHTER ACTIVITY TOWARD NORFOLK AND WAYNE. THRU 00Z...THE H5 LOW
WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER OKLAHOMA WITH LIFT
WEAKENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND BECOMES MORE FOCUSED FROM
ARKANSAS INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH DRIZZLE AND FOG. OVERNIGHT THERE IS STILL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DRIZZLE/FOG...WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME...TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR
TO SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN THE
NORTH. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S.

THE TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO
PARTS OF MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS...AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG WITH WIND
ADVISORIES. FOR US...LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO MIDDAY
FRIDAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO CANADA
THRU SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG A FRONT THRU FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE
LINGERING FOG AND DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING...THEN THE CLOUDS WILL
IMPROVE AND TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SOUTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S...HOWEVER LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE NORTH SHOULD
HOLD READINGS IN THE 40S. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. INITIALLY LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BULK OF
THE SNOW NORTH OF THE AREA. FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE LOW MAY BRING
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES TO PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY. THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS IN THE 20S LAST INTO MONDAY...WITH A
MODERATING THRU WED.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$