AFOS product AFDICT
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Product Timestamp: 2013-01-04 19:58 UTC

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963 
FXUS63 KICT 041959
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
158 PM CST FRI JAN 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES...LIGHT SNOW CHANCES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND THEN PRECIP CHANCES AGAIN NEXT WEEK. 

TONIGHT-MONDAY
UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE EARLY TONIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY
MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH MODEST CHANCE FOR 
LIGHT QPF/SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN A 
DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE A BIT FURTHER WEST TO I-135 
CORRIDOR...THOUGH BETTER LIFT COINCIDENT WITH RELATIVELY DEEPER
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING SHOULD FAVOR SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR 
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER 
TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH 
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PORTION
OF THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTIONS BEING OVER THE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER
WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY
THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE OUTER PERIODS CONTINUES TO REVOLVE 
AROUND THE HANDLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF MOVING 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT 
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH A BIT MORE PHASING OF ENERGY WITHIN THE 
NORTHERN STREAM...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER. THIS LEADS TO 
SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE 
ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC FEATURES...SO WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
GOING FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE BETTER CONTINUITY 
AND CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING A MEAN LONGWAVE UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO BE
POISED AND READY TO DROP SOUTH INTO KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THE AVIATION CONCERN IS THE LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND SNOW CHANCES
FOR KCNU.  

AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH. AFTER
SUNSET LOWER MVFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN IMPACTING PRIMARILY KICT AND
KCNU. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KCNU TOWARDS THE MORNING
HOURS...AND HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO IFR RANGE. 

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL THOSE LOWER MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN. WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. TOWARD THE END OF THIS 24 HOUR VALID PERIOD...A
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...CHANGING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST...THIS SHOULD IMPACT KRSL BY 15-16Z TOMORROW
AND BEGIN TO IMPACT KSLN BY 18Z.  

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    26  43  20  44 /  20  10   0   0 
HUTCHINSON      24  41  17  42 /  10  10   0   0 
NEWTON          25  40  18  40 /  20  10   0   0 
ELDORADO        26  41  21  42 /  20  20   0   0 
WINFIELD-KWLD   28  45  21  45 /  30  20   0   0 
RUSSELL         16  35  13  38 /  10   0   0   0 
GREAT BEND      19  36  13  38 /  10   0   0   0 
SALINA          21  38  15  39 /  10  10   0   0 
MCPHERSON       23  39  16  40 /  10  10   0   0 
COFFEYVILLE     29  46  22  40 /  50  30   0   0 
CHANUTE         27  44  20  39 /  50  40   0   0 
IOLA            27  43  20  39 /  50  40   0   0 
PARSONS-KPPF    28  45  21  40 /  50  40   0   0 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$