739 
FXUS63 KMPX 041123
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
523 AM CST FRI JAN 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS AIDED IN SUSTAINING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO MORE OF A TRUE
WESTERLY DIRECTION TODAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA...AND FACILITATE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 20S. WEAKER SURFACE WINDS TONIGHT AND
NEGLIGIBLE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN/IA/WI.
NEITHER MOISTURE OR LIFT PROGS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
GRAND...ALTHOUGH COULD ENVISION SCATTERED FLURRIES FROM THE STRATUS
DECK THAT ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE DENDRITIC LAYER MOISTURE PROGS FOR THE
THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL...BUT AM CURRENTLY LEANING
TOWARD A FLURRY SCENARIO.

SUNDAY APPEARS DRY WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW/MID 20S FOR HIGHS...AS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
DOMINATES THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO RELATIVELY MILD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT TO RESOLVE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AS IT TRANSLATES EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROUGH. VERY DIFFERING SCENARIOS ARE
OFFERED BY THE GFS/GEM AND ECMWF. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MORE
CONSISTENCY...HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARD ITS DEPICTION OF A FAIRLY
DECENT SYSTEM LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. THIS SCENARIO KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BRINGS IN CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WITH
LLVL THERMAL PROFILES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...MIXED
PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

NO AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS AS CONDS REMAIN
VFR AND WINDS FROM THE WEST-WNW THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SSE ARND 5 KTS
SATURDAY MORNING.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THRU 30 HRS AS A WSW WIND THIS MORNING ARND
8 TO 10 KTS...DECREASING TO ARND 5 KTS THIS AFTN...WITH A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SSE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING UNDER 5 KTS. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE. WINDS W/SW
5 KTS...BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS. 
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS BECOMING SW. 
MON...VFR. WINDS S/SW 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS.
..JLT..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

LS/JLT