126 
FXUS62 KMHX 180315
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1015 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT 
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY 
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...BACK EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG THE US HWY 17 CORRIDOR...AND QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD. HAVE
TAPERED OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING. A BREAK IN THE LOW STRATUS AS WINDS HAVE BACKED SE AND
INC BEHIND THE PRECIP AREA...AS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE HAS MIXED OUT
THE LOW LEVELS. WE EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO MOVE IN AGAIN AS WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VEER TO THE SW TO W. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW 50S
WELL INLAND TO MID 50 CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...LOW STRATUS SHLD BURNOFF AFTER SUNRISE WITH 
INCREASING WRLY FLOW AND DRY ADVECTION. GIVEN RATHER WARM 
START...WRLY FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S 
AREA WIDE. GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPCLY CST AS LOW LVL LAPSE 
RATES STEEPEN INCREASING MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...DRY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRES DOMINATING AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WLY
WINDS. TUE NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 INLAND TO AROUND
50 ON THE COAST. MILD CONDS EXPECTED FOR WED WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LWR TO MID 60S. NEXT STG LOW PRES SYS APCHS FROM THE WEST PASSING
TO THE NW DRAGGING A STG CDFNT THROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING 0F THIS SYSTEM. STRONG DYNAMICS WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO STG TSRA WITH BE LIKELY MAINLY THU AFTN CONTG THU
EVE. CLEARS OUT PRETTY FAST ON FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST WITH DRY AMS CONDS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE EXTENDED PD. NOT
A LOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT AND EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE
MID TO UPR 60S THU COOLING INTO THE MID 50S FRI THROUGH SUNDAY.
MILD LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50
COAST COOLING INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO LWR 40S COAST TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK CONTG THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 645 PM...WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING INTO E NC EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND
03Z...BECOMING LIGHT AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT IFR TO
REDEVELOP BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LOW ST AND POSS SOME FOG TO
CONT WITH LIKELY IFR OR LIFR. LOW CLOUDS SHLD ERODE AFTER SUNRISE
TUE WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR BY MID MORN. WEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS BY TUE AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT WLY. AMS MOISTURE
INCRS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLY FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUB VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED THU AFTN AND
THU EVE ASSOC WITH SCT- NMRS CONVECTION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR FRI WITH MUCH DRIER AMS
CONDS AND A RETURN TO VFR CONDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TO OCNL 25 KT AND 
THIS WL LEAD TO SEAS REACHING 5 TO 7 FT OUTER CNTRL/SRN WTRS. GUSTY 
W WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND CONT TUE 
WITH SPEEDS AGAIN 15 TO 20 AND GUSTS TO 25 KTS. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED 
TO EXPAND THE SCA TO COVER NRN WTRS AND SOUNDS HOWEVER SINCE LOOKS 
MARGINAL WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE GUSTY W WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 
AROUND 6 FT FAR OUTER WTRS TUE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
WITH TIMING OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT
WINDS/SEAS CONT ACROSS ON THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET
ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THEN THE NEXT INTENSE LOW PRES SYS APPROACHES FROM THE W
WITH THE PRES GRAD TGTNG FOR THU WITH SLY WINDS INCRG TO 20 TO 25
KT AND SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 6 FT ACRS THE COASTAL WATERS SPLY S OF
OREGON INLET. FRONT WILL APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH
SW WINDS INCRG TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILD
FROM UP TO 8 TO 11 FT. WINDS BECOME WNW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT CONT
IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE AT LEAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SCA AND EVEN
POSSIBLY GALE CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR A PERIOD FROM THU THROUGH
FRI NIGHT WITH SCA CONDS CONTG FOR SEAS ACROSS THE CNTRL COASTAL
WATERS INTO SAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...TL/RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...TL/RF/JAC
MARINE...TL/RF/JAC