114 
FXUS64 KLZK 140904
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
304 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
EARLY THIS MORNING...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE...WITH EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS DECK APPROACHING FROM TEXAS 
AND OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING...OUT AHEAD 
OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GULF. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY 
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. 

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WARM 
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED 
AND MARGINAL...SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. A 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DRIER 
AIR FOLLOWING IT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP OVER SOUTHEAST 
ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN 
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES 
THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH IT. 

LATE SUNDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...WITH COLDER 
AIR FOLLOWING IT. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END IN THE SOUTHEAST. 
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST LATE 
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE/S REALLY NOT A LOT OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT IT WOULDN/T SURPRISE ME TO SEE A 
STRAY SPRINKLE OR SNOWFLAKE OUT OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. 

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL 
AVERAGES. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 
60S TO NEAR 70S AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD BEGINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW LAGGING 
BEHIND. UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH 00Z EURO ONCE 
AGAIN COMING BACK A BIT DRIER. EVEN THOUGH 12Z EURO RUNS HAVE BEEN 
CONSISTENTLY WETTER THAN THE 00Z RUNS...EURO AS A WHOLE HAS COME 
BACK DRIER EACH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED 
POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE STATE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES IN 
OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER SHOWS UP ON THURSDAY 
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE. 00Z GFS AND 12Z EURO HAD 
LITTLE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE 
TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
WOULD SUGGEST A BIT MORE MOISTURE MAY BE AVAILABLE AND THE CANADIAN 
MODEL SUPPORTS THAT LINE OF THINKING. WENT AND ADDED SOME LOW CHANCE 
POPS...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THE 00Z 
EURO CAME IN WITH SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...BUT 
REMAIN RELUCTANT TO COMPLETELY BUY IN AT THIS TIME.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 
WARMEST DAYS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES 
APPROACHING 70 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS. COLDER AIR WILL 
MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY...BUT READINGS WILL REMAIN WARMER 
THAN AVERAGE FOR MID-DECEMBER. 

WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN...CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL 
BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 3000 FEET ASL. 

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT MOVES 
ACROSS THE REGION...AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT WILL STALL OUT 
NEAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY 
NIGHT...WITH ANY RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END. DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW 
THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE REMAINING ABOVE 40 
PERCENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT THE END OF 
THE WEEK...AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. 
&&

.CLIMATE...
AS STATED ABOVE...THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE SATURDAY...DECEMBER 15TH. 
FORECAST TEMPERATURES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE WITHIN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE. HERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS THAT 
ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSE TO TYING OR BREAKING THE RECORDS. 

STATION                        DEC 15 RECORD HIGH
----------------------------   ------------------
LITTLE ROCK ADAMS FIELD            72 IN 1984
HOT SPRINGS AIRPORT                72 IN 1957
STUTTGART AIRPORT                  70 IN 2006
JACKSONVILLE/LITTLE ROCK AFB       73 IN 2006
NORTH LITTLE ROCK                  70 IN 2006
ARKADELPHIA                        74 IN 1984
HARDY                              68 IN 1908
MENA                               72 IN 1933
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     54  47  65  43 /  10  70  50  10 
CAMDEN AR         59  51  70  48 /  10  70  50  30 
HARRISON AR       58  47  64  41 /  20  70  20  10 
HOT SPRINGS AR    57  50  69  44 /  20  70  40  20 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  48  69  46 /  10  70  50  20 
MONTICELLO AR     61  51  68  55 /  10  70  60  40 
MOUNT IDA AR      56  50  68  38 /  20  70  30  10 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  57  45  65  40 /  10  70  30  10 
NEWPORT AR        54  49  66  46 /  10  70  50  10 
PINE BLUFF AR     59  49  69  51 /  10  70  60  30 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   53  45  67  38 /  20  70  30  10 
SEARCY AR         54  45  63  42 /  10  70  50  20 
STUTTGART AR      56  49  67  48 /  10  70  50  30 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...225 / FIRE WEATHER...57