824 
FXUS64 KLZK 100305 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
905 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

.UPDATE...

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PERSIST AS
A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SEVERE THREAT WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NEAR 1200 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE IN MONTICELLO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MARGINAL WIND THREAT
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH. DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FRONTAL FORCING AND DECENT
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL ALSO PRODUCE MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT AND
POPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL
QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S. ENDED POPS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE SINCE RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THAT PRECIP HAS MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA FOR THE TIME BEING.

IT WILL BE AN INTERESTING EVENING AND EARLY MORNING ACROSS A BIT
OF ARKANSAS. FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING A STRONG
WAVE TRAILING THE COLD FROM THAT CAME THROUGH TODAY. ONCE
AGAIN...THE NAM SHOWS THIS WAVE BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY
TILTED...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE WAVE. ALL
TOGETHER...AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 120 TO 140 KNOTS WILL ACT AS A
LIFTING MECHANISM TO HELP SQUEEZE THE MOISTURE LEFT OVER AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

MORE INFORMATION WILL BECOME AVAILABLE AS THE NEW MODELS RUNS COME
IN...BUT AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME SNOW FLURRIES. ACCUMULATION OF SNOW SEEMS PRETTY LOW AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE ABNORMALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST WEEK.
HOWEVER...SOME SNOW MAY TEMPORARILY ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY SURFACES
BEFORE MELTING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012/ 

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE STATE. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR JONESBORO TO NEAR NORTH LITTLE
ROCK TO GURDON. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. MAINLY IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING. INCLUDED SOME BRIEF SNOW IN THE NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. CLEARING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NOT MANY CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIODS.
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE HAIL. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN AREAS WHERE
THE WINDS ARE BACKING...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
HENCE THE TORNADO WATCH. 

ONCE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GREATLY
DIMINISH...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING STRATIFORM RAIN...WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF...ELEVATED THUNDER. 

COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STRONG...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP RAPIDLY WITHIN AN HOUR OF ITS PASSAGE. BY MORNING...READINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S NORTH...MID 30S CENTRAL...AND
NEAR 50 SOUTH. THOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS DEBATABLE...ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SLEET/SNOW OR TRANSITION
OVER BEFORE COMING TO AN END DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY ROUGHLY IN AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM MURFREESBORO...TO
LITTLE ROCK TO NEWPORT. 

WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PROBLEMS. HOWEVER...
WITH THE UPPER WAVE BEHIND THIS FRONT...UPLIFT WILL BE ENHANCED...
AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF HEAVIER BURST OF PRECIP. IF THIS PANS OUT...
ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT...LIMITED TO GRASSY AREAS AND
ELEVATED SURFACES...AND OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. 

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
MONDAY. MOST LIKELY...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS WILL BE MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH A BIT OF A RECOVERY...BEFORE
FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING. MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY WILL
LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S OR 40S. 

COLDEST NIGHTS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE LONG
TERM. 

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MID WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY...WITH MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING A SLIGHT WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SYSTEM WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY. WITH ZONAL UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
ITS WAKE...SHOULD BE NO MAJOR WARMUP OR COOLDOWN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. COLD AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK /BELOW 30 PERCENT/. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION...AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
FAIRLY RAPID. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     32  39  21  44 /  60  30   0   0 
CAMDEN AR         40  47  25  49 /  90  60   0   0 
HARRISON AR       25  36  18  40 /  30  10   0   0 
HOT SPRINGS AR    34  41  23  45 /  50  50   0   0 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  36  43  25  46 /  80  50   0   0 
MONTICELLO AR     43  49  28  48 / 100  40   0   0 
MOUNT IDA AR      31  40  18  46 /  40  40   0   0 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  27  37  19  42 /  30  20   0   0 
NEWPORT AR        35  42  23  44 /  80  40   0   0 
PINE BLUFF AR     39  46  28  45 /  90  50   0   0 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   33  42  19  46 /  30  40   0   0 
SEARCY AR         34  42  20  45 /  80  40   0   0 
STUTTGART AR      37  46  26  44 /  90  60   0   0 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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