634 
FXUS63 KIND 281521
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EST WED NOV 28 2012

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EST WED NOV 28 2012

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO 
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PROVIDING DRY 
AND COOL WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST OF INDIANA BY 
THURSDAY...AND WARMER...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN. A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARD THE STATE ON SATURDAY...AND 
THIS MAY RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1017 AM EST WED NOV 28 2012

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR GENERALLY SUPPORT THE FORECAST HIGHS 
TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER 
THAN WHAT WAS EXPECTED BY THIS TIME. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO 
THE HIGHS IN SPOTS...BUT OVERALL SHOULDN/T AFFECT THE CURRENT 
FORECAST TOO MUCH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL WAKE UP TO A COLD MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR TODAY...SKIES 
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES 
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO CLIMO (AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/S 
HIGHS). A MOS BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE FOR HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID 
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EST WED NOV 28 2012

THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO 
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT 
THE PERIOD. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND A SOUTHERLY 
FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EST WED NOV 28 2012

MODELS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH THROUGH THE LONG TERM SO THE ALLBLEND 
INITIALIZATION WAS USED FOR MOST ITEMS. 

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE LONG TERM WILL GIVE WAY TO A 
TROUGH MOVING IN BY TUESDAY. ONE IMPULSE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL 
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
SO REMOVED ALLBLEND/S POPS THEN AND STUCK WITH DRY. A COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A DECENT 
CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH IT. INCLUDED AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION ON 
TUESDAY GIVEN SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 928 AM EST WED NOV 28 2012

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF PER OBERVATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES 
NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR 
FOG AT KBMG EARLY.

AREA OF STRATOCU WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL 
INDIANA...BRINGING PERIODS OF BKN045 TO KIND/KLAF UNTIL 14Z OR SO. 
OTHERWISE THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED ARE SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

KBMG CONTINUES TO BE MARGINAL VFR AT THE MOMENT AND COULD DIP INTO 
MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/JAS
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50/JH