370 
FXUS61 KBGM 270932
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
432 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING STORM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING
THEN TRACK OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK. ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WILL GENERALLY BE AN INCH OR LESS WITH UP TO 2 INCHES IN NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SCATTERED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 415 AM...SFC LOW PRES WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WITH AN H5 SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. RADAR AND
SATELLITE SHOW RETURNS INCREASING ACROSS NRN PA ALONG WITH CLOUD
TOP COOLING FROM PIT TO AVP. SYSTEM WILL REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE AND
THEREFORE A FAST MOVER WITH SFC FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
DELMARVA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS DO HINT AT SOME FGEN
FORCING ACROSS THE FAR SE FA LATER THIS MORNING BUT THIS PERIOD IS
BRIEF AND RATHER WEAK. A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 12-18Z, WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AROUND 2 INCHES OVER LUZERNE, LACKAWANNA,
SOUTHERN WAYNE, PIKE AND SOUTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE BEST LIFT/MOISTURE FROM AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH
MIDDAY ALONG WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT RESIDING IN SNOW GROWTH
REGION.

BY MID AFTERNOON REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL PUSH THROUGH SULLIVAN AND
PIKE COUNTIES WITH WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND DEPARTING
WAVE. DUE TO WEAK FLOW AND T85 AROUND -10C WILL ONLY MENTION
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NRN FA.

MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH RIDGING AT
THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS VERY WEAK AND NORTHWEST WITH
FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE NIGHT. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHC POPS FAR NRN CWA FOR ANY ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA. REST OF AREA WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF REGION WHILE A SFC
TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO BRUSHES THE NRN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS NRN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NRN ONEIDA
COUNTY. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND TROF LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 280/290 ALONG WITH
T85 AROUND -10/-11 WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO NRN FA. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT THEN
LOWER INTO CHC CATEGORY AS FLOW BACKS, AVAILABLE MOISTURE
DECREASES AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS ARE
POSSIBLE. REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL PROVIDE A
SOMEWHAT MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40 UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SFC TROF WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NRN CWA. FEATURE IS SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED
AND WITH RISING HEIGHTS UNDER ZONAL FLOW NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. MOSTLY DRY UNTIL A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. AGREE
WITH PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THAT THE FAST GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAST
AGAIN. 00Z RUNS SHOW SIMILAR RESULTS TO EARLIER RUNS. CANADIAN AND
EURO SIMILAR IN TIMING WITH SUNDAY RAIN SHOWERS. THIS COOL DOWN
IS BRIEF LASTING ONLY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

230 PM UPDATE...
WHILE THE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIP TIMING AND EVEN SOME PTYPE ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM...THE
MAIN THEME IS A ZONAL FLOW AND MUCH MILDER AIR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WE EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND IT
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING AGAIN
FRIDAY. MAJOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS IN ONE CAMP WITH A FASTER WARM-UP...AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE IN ANOTHER CAMP WITH A MUCH SLOWER WARM-UP...AND DRY
WEATHER UNTIL THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FAVOR THE 2ND SOLUTION
AS THE MODELS HAVE HAD TROUBLE RECENTLY TRYING TO DISLODGE THE
COLD AIR TOO FAST AND THIS IS ALSO MORE IN LINE WITH OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

WITH THAT SAID WILL KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND DRY WITH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY DECEMBER OR INTO THE LOWER 40S.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ARRIVES ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF PLAIN
RAIN AS 850 TEMPS SURGE ABOVE 0C. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING CAREFULLY BECAUSE SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME PTYPE ISSUES IF THE PRECIP ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH ESPECIALLY
EAST OF 81. AS A TROF DIGS INTO THE WESTERN US...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH 850S APPROACHING THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS...TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. RME HAS MVFR VSBYS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
BUT WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. AS SNOW MOVES INTO
NE PA AND THE SRN TIER OF NY BY 12Z FROM THE SW CONDITIONS WILL
FALL TO MVFR BGM AND ELM AND IFR IN AVP. THERE WILL BE A SHARP
NORTHERN EDGE AND EXPECT IT TO BE BETWEEN ELM/BGM AND ITH. RETURN
TO VFR FROM 15Z IN ELM TO 19Z IN AVP AS THE SNOW MOVES OUT. ITH
SYR SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO NW MIDDAY
MAY SHIFT WEAK LAKE EFFECT INTO SYR AND RME. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
DID NOT INCLUDE. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE FORCING.

LIGHT WEST WINDS AND CALM IN THE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCREASE TO 5 KTS AND SHIFT TO THE NW LATE MORNING. TONIGHT BACK
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM.  


OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR-MVFR WITH CHC IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT KSYR AND KRME DUE
TO WARM FRONT.

THU/FRI/SAT...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...TAC