080 
FXUS65 KTFX 250325
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
825 PM MST SAT NOV 24 2012

.UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY TO ADD MENTION
OF FREEZING FOG TO NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO HELENA VALLEY. AS
WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CLOUDINESS DECREASES...
OBSERVATIONS LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE SHOWN NARROWING
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD ACROSS THE HILINE AND EXPECT THIS TO
PROGRESS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. BELIEVE MOISTURE FROM
PRECIPITATION TODAY ENOUGH TO CREATE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY
FOG...AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME IN THE CUT BANK AREA. OTHERWISE
GOING FORECAST ON TRACK. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL
EXPECTING UP TO 6 INCHES BY SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH THE PLAINS GENERALLY SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0000Z.
MOIST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION 
THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE RAIN/SNOW 
SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING 
NORTH AND LATER TONIGHT SOUTH. A MOIST AIRMASS...RELATIVELY LIGHT 
WINDS AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 
PATCHY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF SOME TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. OCCASIONAL 
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS 
CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 PM MST SAT NOV 24 2012/
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY 
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS 
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY 
EVENING. WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF 
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL 
MONTANA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT... 
HOWEVER...THE COLDEST AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE 
AREA. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT 
DURING THE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SCATTERED SNOW 
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH THE NIGHT... 
MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH 
INTO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY 
MORNING BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. 
THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA 
AND IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT WHERE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 
ARE EXPECTED IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH RANGE. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN 
AROUND AND INCH OR LESS. MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE 
AREA QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN 
COVERAGE...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE 
SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF MONTANA. TEMPERATURES 
THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES 
ACROSS THE AREA. LANGLIEB

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP 
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD 
OVER THE REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A SLOW 
WARMING TREND AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. ON THURSDAY...THE 
PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT TO A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...RESULTING 
IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN 
FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE 
PLAINS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES...BUT PRECIPITATION 
AMOUNTS DO LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVER THE PLAINS. FOR FRIDAY 
AND SATURDAY...DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL 
REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH MANY LOWER 
ELEVATION LOCATIONS RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  25  35  22  40 /  60  50  10  10 
CTB  18  32  17  35 /  30  60  10  10 
HLN  24  35  19  35 /  40  40  10  10 
BZN  26  36  14  33 /  60  50  20  10 
WEY  24  31  12  27 /  90  80  30  10 
DLN  26  34  18  33 /  50  40  20  10 
HVR  17  27  15  31 /  20  50  20  10 
LWT  22  32  18  36 /  60  60  40  10 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST MONDAY NORTHERN ROCKY 
MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST MONDAY BROADWATER...
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK...JEFFERSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST MONDAY CASCADE...
CHOUTEAU...FERGUS...JUDITH BASIN...MEAGHER.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST MONDAY BEAVERHEAD...
GALLATIN...MADISON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM MST MONDAY EASTERN GLACIER...
TOOLE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOSS
LONG TERM...WARANAUSKAS
AVIATION...HOENISCH

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS