594 
FXUS61 KRLX 210758
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
258 AM EST WED NOV 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY AND THANKSGIVING. COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY...CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ECHOES ON RLX RADAR...MOST IF NOT ALL OF WHICH WAS VIRGA...HAVE COME
TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA. MOST LOCATIONS SEEING A CLEAR TO PARTLY 
CLOUDY SKY AT THIS POINT...WITH MORE CLOUDS PUSHING E/SE WARD ACROSS 
CENTRAL/SW OHIO. THESE WILL CONTINUE INTO WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS 
MORNING WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY DISSIPATING. IN SHORT...SOME EARLY 
MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WILL QUICKLY SCATTER AND LEAVE 
BEHIND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY MID/LATE MORNING AS 
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD TODAY AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE 
OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...INHERITED MAX TEMPS STILL 
LOOK GOOD BUT DID TWEAK UPWARDS A COUPLE OF DEGREES GOING TOWARDS 
HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE WITH RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ALONG 
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR CALM NEAR-SFC WINDS TODAY. UNDER A 
CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT AND CALM WINDS WITH SFC HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER AREA...WENT ON LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR 
OVERNIGHT MINS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOKING TO BE A DRY...WARM THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY. 
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE 
AREA ON FRIDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF 
RAIN DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INTO THE REGION. MODELS APPEAR TO 
HAVE SPED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP INTO 
THE AREA FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. 
PRECIPITATION MAY TAPER OFF TO A DRIZZLE LATE IN THE SHORT TERM 
PERIOD BEFORE THE UPSLOPE NW FLOW KICKS IN WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE 
MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY...CREATING SNOW SHOWERS AS COLDER AIR FILTERS 
IN FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWING THROUGH FOR 
THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. 
EXAMINATION OF THE LONG TERM MODELS DOES NOT PROVIDE GREAT INSIGHT 
INTO THE MOISTURE FIELD FOR THIS EVENT...BUT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A 
PERFECT SET UP FOR UPSLOPE. HAVE OPTED FOR SOME LIKELIES IN THE 
USUAL LOCATIONS OF WEBSTER/RANDOLPH/POCAHONTAS...WITH LESSER VALUES 
FURTHER SOUTH DOWN THE MOUNTAINS. ALL IN ALL...A COUPLE INCHES 
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH RETURNS THE DRY 
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SLATED FOR 
LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE IN 
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM ON BOTH TRACK AND TIMING...AND 
EXPECT SOME RUN TO RUN CHANGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENT 
BKN/OVC MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BTWN 12Z-18Z WITH ESSENTIALLY A CLEAR SKY THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL BE NEAR CALM DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EVENING PERIODS...AND VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION COULD AGAIN OCCUR
ALONG RIVERS NEAR DAWN WED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 11/21/12
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN WV HIGH TERRAIN 
FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...50