338 
FXUS63 KUNR 152324
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
424 PM MST THU NOV 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE IS LOCATED
OVER THE CNTRL DAKOTAS WITH DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROF IN CNTRL MT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD.

TONIGHT...STRONG WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND DEEPENING LEE TROF TO OUR
WEST. SW WINDS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE TO 30-45KTS
WHICH WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE NRN
HILLS/FOOTHILLS.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTS TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS INTO LOWER 60S EAST/SOUTH OF
THE BLKHLS.

SATURDAY...WEAK UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE NRN PLAINS TURNING WINDS TO
THE NORTH...BUT LITTLE IF ANY COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HIGHS
IN THE 50S EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...WITH SOME LOWER 60S EAST/SOUTH OF
THE BLKHLS. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE.

EXTENDED...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD AS WEST TO 
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK DISTURBANCES 
IN THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT 
CHANCES FOR ANY PCPN STILL LOOK TO BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL 
GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN 
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY
AND PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN SD DURING THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING
KRAP.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...10