310 
FXUS61 KBGM 090921
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
421 AM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER...AND RAPIDLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK ON 
SATURDAY...CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY...AFTER A COLD FRONT
BRINGS US ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN RAIN SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE US WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER QUIET DAY TODAY.
THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE TODAY VERSUS WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WILL BE
A RETURN TO CLOUD COVER OVER PART OF OUR AREA. AN AREA OF STRATUS
UPSTREAM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE ALLOWED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER OUR CWA AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.
STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE SUNSHINE BUT IT WON'T BE THE BRIGHT
BLUE SKY WE SAW MOST OF YESTERDAY. OVERALL P CLOUDY LOOKS FINE BUT
WE MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW AS EARLY AS
LATE THIS MORNING. WITH 925 TEMPS INCHING UP A FEW DEGREES HIGHS
IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 LOOK GOOD. LATE TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK OVER
THE FAR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THE ONLY CHANCE AT PRECIP COMING SATURDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THE NAM WHILE STILL WARMER AND A BIT
FASTER WITH THE FRONT SATURDAY...HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND EURO OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. STILL
PREFER A SLOWER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MORE CLOUDS WHICH WILL
HOLD HIGHS IN THE 50S. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
STRONGEST WAA OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. SHOWERS END SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.

BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES WITH
THE EURO/GFS/NAM SHOWS A THERMAL RIDGE OVER OUR WESTERN CWA WITH
925 TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS. IN FACT EVEN USING THE LOWER EURO
VALUES OF NEAR +14C WOULD SUPPORT NEAR 70...WHILE THE HIGHER NAM
AND GFS NUMBER SUPPORT TEMPS INTO THE 70S. BUMPED TEMPS CLOSER TO
NEAR 70 IN THESE AREAS BUT I DO LIKE THE MUCH COOLER (50S TO NEAR
60) TEMPS OVER OUR FAR EAST WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH CLIMATOLOGY IN
THIS TYPE OF SETUP. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
205 PM WED UPDATE... 
AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S FOR 
HIGHS...MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON SHOWERY COLD FRONT PASSING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HPC FORECAST INCREASING POPS INTO HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE APPEARS WARRANTED. BEHIND THE
FRONT...MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT BRIEF COOL AIR
INTRUSION...INCLUDING 850MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 6 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WILL ENTER THE REGION WITH SOME SORT OF
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DESPITE LACK OF QPF IN
MODELS...A CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS WORTH ADDING
WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF POTENTIAL /THOUGH LIMITED/ LAKE RESPONSE.

HOWEVER...OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING AT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST 
/OR AT LEAST ZONAL/ FLOW...THUS THE MIDWEEK COOL AIR INTRUSION
WILL BE TEMPORARY. WE ARE STILL NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER EVENTS ON THE HORIZON AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LGT NW FLOW AS RDG SLOWLY BLDS INTO THE AREA THRU THE PD. THIS
WILL KEEP VFR CONDS WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES BLO 120 INTO EARLY SAT. 


OUTLOOK...

SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT MVFR POSSIBLE IN CNTRL NY DUE TO WARM FRONT
IN THE VICINITY.

SUN TO MON...VFR.

MON NGT/TUE...MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR WITH SHOWERY COLD FRONT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DGM/TAC