283 
FXUS61 KCAR 090902
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
402 AM EST FRI NOV 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN CREST OVER THE STATE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR REF AND IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEFORMATION BAND
GRADUALLY NARROWING DOWN AND WEAKENING AS THE BACK EDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EWRD INTO NB PROV. SFC TO BL TEMPS ARE SO MARGINAL FOR SN...
PRECIP HAS ACTUALLY GONE BACK TO OR IS AT LEAST MIXING WITH RN AT
KHUL AS OF 08Z. THIS HAS ALLOWED US TO FINALLY CANX THE REMAINDER
OF THE WNTR WX ADV OVR THE CNTRL HIGHLANDS OF THE FA. WE XPCT
THE DIMINISHING TREND OF PRECIP TO CONT ERLY THIS MORN...LEAVING
ISOLD RN/SN SHWRS ACROSS THE FA AT MOST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING...AND THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG FOR SPCLY DOWNEAST AND E
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA THIS AFTN. THE RELATIVE LACK OF LLVL COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS LOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RECOVERY OF HI TEMPS INTO
THE UPPER 30S N TO LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST THIS AFTN...WITH
LITTLE OR NO RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TNGT AS A WEAK AND DRY
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
AIR WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 25 MPH SATURDAY
MORNING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S FOR THE CROWN OF MAINE.
HIGHS DOWN EAST WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES FOR ALL AREAS SATURDAY. THE HIGH CRESTS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER
TEENS IN THE SJV. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE NIGHT DOWN EAST AND KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR
30F. TEMPERATURES DOWN EAST WILL RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT. LOWS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR WELL BEFORE DAWN FOR NORTHERN AREAS AS THE
UPPER CLOUDS THICKEN. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL BE INTRODUCING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR WILL BE VERY SLOW TO LEAVE THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE WARM FRONT COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL HOLD IN ALL DAY IN
THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY AND SOME GLAZING IS POSSIBLE THERE. CLOUD
COVER WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE AND
UPPER 40S IN THE DOWN EAST REGION. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH TO LOW TO MID 40S DOWN EAST. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE 50S WITH SUNSHINE FOR ALL ZONES AFTER
MORNING CLOUDINESS SLOWLY ERODES. EXPECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND ADVECT WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR OVER
THE REGION. LOWS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F DOWN
EAST. LOWS NORTH OF HOULTON WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THE TIMING ON THE COLD FRONT HAS BECOME MORE CERTAIN WITH MOST NWP
SOLUTIONS FOCUSING ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS.
HAVE INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS FASTER FRONTAL
SPEED APPEARS TO HAVE ELIMINATED THE RISK THAT THE FRONT WOULD HOOK
UP WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING ATLANTIC DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS UNDER
A HALF INCH FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
50S TUESDAY...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AND HIGHS WILL
DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR AND LOW MVFR WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL
OF THE TAF SITES BY MID AFTN UNDER GUSTY NNW SFC WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN CONT TNGT.

SHORT TERM: GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 MPH WILL OCCUR SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
ARRIVES SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY DECAYS TO IFR NORTH OF HUL. MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE IFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP AND GIVE VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IFR RETURNS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AM.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A STRONG SFC PRES GRAD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC LOW AS
IT MOVES E INTO THE MARITIMES ALG WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES ABLE
TO MIX WITH STRONGER WINDS ALF WILL ALLOW OW END GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS TO CONT THIS MORN...AFTWRDS BOTH THE SFC PRES GRAD AND AND
WINDS ALF WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...WITH AN SCA
LIKELY BEING NECESSARY THIS AFTN INTO TNGT AFT THE TERMINATION OF
THE GLW. KEPT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABV WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR THIS
PTN OF THE FCST.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO WIND GUSTS WILL END SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER SCA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN
MARINE...VJN/MCW