335 
FXUS61 KCAR 080009
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 PM EST WED NOV 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE: MADE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCALS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF
SNOW WITH A MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN NOT OCCURRING UNTIL THE
LATER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES NOW APPEAR LIKELY AS FAR SOUTH AS
BANGOR EAST TOWARD WOODLAND AND CALAIS. ALSO, REMOVED THE MENTION
OF SLEET DURING THE TRANSITION TO RAIN FOR THESE AREAS AS GUIDANCE
INDICATES LOW LEVEL WARMING ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD CLOSELY COINCIDE
WITH THE WARMING ALOFT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
AN INITIAL BAND OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT GIVING AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF QPF IN
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AND LESS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO CENTRAL AREAS
WITH AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION MAY TAPER OFF
FOR A WHILE THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS INITIAL BAND LIFTS NORTH AND
DISSIPATES. ANY REMAINING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SNOW
OR A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET OVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS WITH RAIN
DOWNEAST. A SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION MORE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE ITSELF MAY MOVE INTO DOWNEAST
AREAS LATER ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
AND MAY GIVE AN ADDITION QUARTER INCH OF QPF. HOWEVER...SOME MIXED
SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY IN CENTRAL SPOTS
THURSDAY WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING NOR'EASTER 
THURSDAY NIGHT.  RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST 
MAINE WITH UP TO ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE 
PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.   

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  IT WILL BE BRISK ON FRIDAY AND THEN WINDS 
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO GIVE WAY AS WARM FRONT
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS AREA ON SUNDAY. PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO ST JOHN AND ALLAGASH RIVER BASINS AS SNOW SHOWERS CHANGE TO
RAIN...ELSEWHERE JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS AND WARMER
TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OFF APPROACHING COLD FRONT UNTIL
TUESDAY WHEN UPPER TROF BEGINS TO PROVIDE BOOST FOR COLD FRONT TO
BEGIN APPROACHING CWA BY MID TUESDAY. WITH GOOD WARM ADVECTION
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECT MOSTLY RASH
AHEAD AND WITH COLD FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AGAIN BECOMING
MIXED AS COLD FRONT PASSES LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATER THIS
EVENING THEN IFR LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT THEN IFR THURSDAY MORNING. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. 


SHORT TERM: IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE LIKELY AT TAF SITES THURSDAY 
NIGHT IN SNOW...RAIN AND FOG. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES 
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 KT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY. 


SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST 
WINDS 22 TO 32 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 4 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST 
     THURSDAY FOR MEZ001>004-010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ005-006-
     011-015>017-031-032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS/OKULSKI