133 
FXUS63 KMPX 291818
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
118 PM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FXUS63 KMPX 291127
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
627 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012/

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WRN MN THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA.
HERE...A GUSTY RETURN FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S. 

HURRICANE SANDY HAS MADE ITS LONG ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE NORTH.
PRESSURE FIELDS SHOW AN ELONGATION OF ISOBARS TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER...INDICATING ITS INTERACTION WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH IS INCREASING. AS THE INTERACTION CONTINUES...
THE STORM WILL CURVE DRAMATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST AND MAKE A
BEELINE FOR THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST LATER TODAY AS ONE FOR
THE HISTORY BOOKS. MODELS HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAD IT PEGGED ABOUT
168 HOURS AGO TO MAKE LANDFALL EXACTLY WHERE THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING IT TO MAKE LANDFALL...AT
NEARLY THE SAME STRENGTH...WITH A TEMPORAL ERROR OF ONLY 12 HOURS.
COINCIDENCE? PROBABLY...BUT THE CONSISTENCY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS IS CERTAINLY NOTED WITH MOST MODELS.

THE MASSIVE HISTORIC STORM WILL HALT ANY PROGRESSION OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CONUS ALL WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL SHIELD THE AREA FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...INCLUDING HIGH WIND EARLY THIS WEEK. THE
RIDGE AND THE STORM TO THE EAST WILL...HOWEVER...BRING SUBSIDENCE
TO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND DRIER DEW POINTS OVER WRN WI/ERN MN
TODAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY - POSSIBLY AS LOW AS THE TEENS.
THE FAST FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER WILL SPREAD CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER THE PLAINS...BUT
THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL EVAPORATE THOSE CLOUDS AS THEY HEAD EAST INTO
THE RIDGE. THE LOWER DEW POINTS...LESS CLOUD COVER...AND LIGHT
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
PLUMMET ACROSS WRN WI TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. LOWS COULD
FALL INTO THE TEENS IN SOME OF THE COLDER LOCATIONS. RETURN FLOW
JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS WRN MN WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH WARMER THERE
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THUS...THE MAIN UPDATES WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WERE TO LOWER DEW POINTS...SKY COVER...AND TEMPS ACROSS
THE EAST. OTHERWISE...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT VARY MUCH THIS WEEK.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ALLOWING THE STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN TO EASE. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
SO MAINTAINED SMALL POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT.

&&



.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TO CONTINUE FOR THE REGION AS VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID CLOUD DECK MOVING SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT HELPS GENERATE
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VIRGA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN EDGE CONTINUES TO ERODE THE DECK AS IT
TRIES TO ADVANCE INTO WISCONSIN...BUT THAT SUBSIDENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVENT THE BKN-OVC DECK FROM REACHING MUCH FURTHER
EAST THAN JUST WEST OF EAU CLAIRE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MORNING RIVER FOG AT EAU CLAIRE TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS RETROGRADES
BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. EASTERN AREAS...INCLUDING MSP...WILL
SEE WINDS TURN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MSP...QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL. MID CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDENCE CAUSES IT TO SCATTER OUT.
REGARDLESS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
AND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOST NOTEABLE AVIATION DURING THIS TAF
PERIOD WILL BE THE WIND SWINGING AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW MORNING AS SHOWN IN THE TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS NE 5 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

BORGHOFF/SPD