214 
FXUS62 KMHX 261014
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
614 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY. HURRICANE
SANDY WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT THEN OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING TO OFF THE
NORTH ON MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. MEANWHILE HURRICANE SANDY CONTINUES CHURNING VICINITY OF
THE BAHAMAS. CIRRUS FROM THE OUTER FRINGES OF SANDY CONTINUES
SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NC COAST. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS
LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WERE SPREADING SOUTHWARD AND
SHOULD COVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY DAWN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING BUT BY THAT TIME DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE FROM ADVANCING HURRICANE SANDY WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NC
PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE COAST.
WILL STILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ADJACENT
TO THE PAMLICO SOUND AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET WITH THIS UPDATE. PLEASE REFER TO BULLETINS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE LOCAL HURRICANE
STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD
CITY FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE SANDY. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...SANDY BEGINS TO TRACK NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND EASTERN NC WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE OUTER
CIRCULATION OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY
OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...HEAVY AT
TIMES...ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THE SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LESS NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NW
PORTION OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST THRU THE WEEKEND THEN TURN BACK TO
THE NW AND MAKE LANDFALL WELL TO THE N OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE
COAST A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SO EXPECTING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE AREA. INIT WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY NE THRU SAT NIGHT...BECOMING N SUNDAY THEN NW LATER SUN
NIGHT AND MON. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE FLOODING OF THE LOWER SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND...THIS
HIGH WATER WILL THEN IMPACT THE SOUND SIDE OF THE OBX SUN NIGHT
INTO MON AS WINDS GO NW. ALONG THE BEACHES THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
OVER-WASH AND FLOODING WILL BE NORTH OF HATTERAS WHERE TIDAL
DEPARTURES OF AT LEAST 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
VERY LARGE SEAS. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION SAT
INTO MON...CURRENTLY HAVE STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES INLAND AND 5 TO 7 INCHES BEACHES. THIS RAIN MAY CAUSE SOME
MINOR ISSUES BUT GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN PAST FEW WEEKS NO
SIGNIF OR WIDESPREAD FRESHWATER FLOODING IS EXPECTED. 

DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN LATER MON/MON NIGHT AND CONT THRU
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S MON THRU WED WITH
POSS SOME LOWER 60S BY THU. LOOKS LIKE WILL HAVE DECENT GRDNT WITH
REMNANTS OF SANDY TO THE N AND HIGH PRES TO THE S SO NOT SURE WILL
DECOUPLE AT NIGHT BUT SHLD SEE LOWS IN THE 30S INLAND FROM MON
NIGHT ON.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS AFTER 12Z AND EVENTUALLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TAF SITES 16-17Z. MOISTURE FROM
ADVANCING HURRICANE SANDY WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO EASTERN NC THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SUB VFR CONDITIONS. LATE
TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AFTER
06Z. 

LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY N/NE WINDS SAT THRU
SUN NIGHT AS SANDY PASSES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST. EXPECT PROLONGED
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL LIKELY
GUST 20 TO 30 MPH AS WELL. SHLD GRAD DRY OUT MON INTO MON NIGHT
WITH VFR RETURNING BUT NW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY MON. CONT VFR
TUE WITH W WINDS 10 TO 20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND HURRICANE SANDY OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL INCREASE TODAY
FROM 10 TO 15 TO 15 TO 20 KT POSSIBLY 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LATE. SANDY WILL BEGIN LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE NC
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE. SEAS WILL
BUILD FROM 4 TO 6 FT THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 FEET LATE TODAY AND
12 TO 16 FT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE
WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET. THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO TROPICL WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATER
TODAY BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY.

LONG TERM /SAT THROUGH TUE/
AS OF 230 AM FRI...HURRICANE SANDY WILL PRODUCE TROP STORM FORCE
WINDS ALONG THE COAST SAT INTO MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST
15 TO 20 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS...ALL BOATS SHLD REMAIN IN PORT.
WINDS WILL GRAD DIMINISH LATER MON AND TUE AS SANDY MOVES FURTHER
TO THE N ...HOWEVER THE LARGE WIND FIELD AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP
SPEEDS IN SCA RANGE THRU TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 10 FEET N
AND 5 TO 8 FEET S BY TUE EVENING.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NCZ047-080-081-093>095-098-103-104. 
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR AMZ135-152-154-156-158. 
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT 
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC/JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/JME
MARINE...RF/JME