National Weather Service Raw Text Product

073 
FXUS63 KIND 250201
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1001 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF 
LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK EAST OF THE AREA 
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS 
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

HUGE CHANGES NOT NECESSARY. DID TWEAK GRIDS TO INCORPORATE LATEST
OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AND BASED ON THESE AND LATEST HOURLY
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...DID UP MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY START TO FILTER
INTO THE WESTERN AREA AFTER 06-07Z...AND WINDS WILL STAY UP AROUND
5KT OVERNIGHT GIVE OR TAKE A KNOT OR TWO....WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT ENTIRELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LONG 
WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY MOVES 
SLOWLY INTO THE MIDWEST BY THIS WEEKEND. MODEL DATA SUGGEST 
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL SMALLER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE 
APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH...KEEPING THIS PERIOD RATHER 
UNSETTLED.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY 
NIGHT. MOST OF THE LIFT LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY 
OF LIFT OR INSTABILITY ADVERTISED AHEAD OF IT...SO THINK MAIN 
PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE POST FRONTAL. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY 
AND GRADUALLY BRING IN POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY 
NIGHT. MAIN ZONE OF LIFT IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE 
FORECAST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS 
THE DAY GOES BY. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ON FRIDAY ALL AREA EXCEPT 
FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST AS IT APPEARS MAIN LIFT ZONE MAY BE EAST OF 
THERE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

MODELS SUGGEST A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH 
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH MAY SERVE TO INDUCE A 
SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT EAST OF HERE. MOS OF THE OPERATIONAL 
MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF LIFT/PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY 
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A GOOD NUMBER OF ENSEMBLES BRING THE 
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHER WEST INTO INDIANA. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP 
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND WATCH THE 
TRENDS.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH 
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW DEEP THE COLD AIR INTRUSION GETS INTO THE AREA. 
BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO ACCEPT THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST 
PART...BUT WILL TREND WARMER BY FRIDAY NIGHT TO HELP COVER THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE MORE WESTERLY SOLUTIONS OF THE ENSEMBLES REGARDING 
THE SURFACE WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON THE REMAINS OF SANDY AS 
IT MOVES UP OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST AND THE STRENGTHENING OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  HOWEVER ALL BLEND KEEPS US DRY 
AS WELL AS MOST MODELS. DID NOTE THE CANADIAN AND GFS INDICATED 
LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AROUND TUESDAY AND GFS ALSO HAD LIGHT 
QPF AS WELL INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT. HOWEVER 
WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY FOR NOW PER ALL BLEND.
WILL ADD A FEW MORE CLOUDS THAN ALL BLEND AND CONSALL NUMBERS. BUT 
NOT QUITE AS MUCH A HPC.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ALL BLEND TEMPERATURES...MAINLY TO GO A 
DEGREE OR TWO LOWER AS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR DIGS ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN CIRRUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW DIURNAL CU. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY
EVENING. WIND GUSTS AT 25-30KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...RYAN