036 
FXUS62 KILM 230724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH 
THURSDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM 
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE BAHAMAS WHILE STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE LATER
THIS WEEK. THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE WAVES WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALMOST 
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE 
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST 
TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD 
REACH +15C TODAY. LOWERING SUN ANGLES MEAN WE'LL ONLY MIX UP TO 
ABOUT 3500 FT...FAR SHORT OF THE POTENTIAL THIS AIRMASS WOULD HAVE 
DURING THE SUMMER. (JUST FOR FUN...MID-SUMMER INSOLATION WOULD 
PROBABLY GIVE UPPER 80S TODAY)  OUR HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S 
TODAY WITH SOME MID 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. 

GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MEANS FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS 
LARGE SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. BOTH NAM AND GFS 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50-55 DEGREE F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING UP 
THROUGH ABOUT 1500 FT AFTER DARK...SUFFICIENT FOR FOG GIVEN 
ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 50 INLAND... 
WITH SOME MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WARM AND QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND 
ALOFT...REMAIN OVER THE AREA. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL 
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH POSITION MEANS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE 
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RIGHT 
AROUND 80...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S ON THURSDAY. THESE 
REPRESENT VALUES OF AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. 
MINS AT NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S WED NIGHT...MID 50S 
THURSDAY THANKS TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL 
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EXCITING YET UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENTS IN THE 
EXTENDED RELATED TO NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM SANDY AND HOW SHE 
WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE WKND.

UNFORTUNATELY...OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COME 
INTO LESS-AGREEMENT, AND THERE ARE TWO "CAMPS" AT THIS TIME. THE 
GFS-CAMP DEVELOPS SANDY RAPIDLY NEAR CUBA AND THEN PUSHES HER WELL 
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE US EAST COAST. THE MORE TROUBLING 
ECMWF/CMC CAMP DEVELOPS SANDY IN ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME FRAME...AND 
THEN BRINGS HER ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AS A VERY 
STRONG...REALLY AN HISTORIC...SYSTEM. 

THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES LIE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500MB TROUGH 
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND DIVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT 
WKND...AND THE LEVEL OF RIDGE/BLOCKING THAT OCCURS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS 
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER TROUGH WHICH THEN CANNOT 
CAPTURE SANDY TO SPIN HER BACK TO THE NORTH...AND A MORE RAPIDLY 
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WHICH ENABLES SANDY TO DRIFT EAST BENEATH THE 
WEAKNESS. THE ECMWF/CMC SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH IS 
ABLE TO PULL SANDY BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SINCE SHE IS 
SLOWED BY MORE PRONOUNCED DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. WHILE THE ECMWF 
TROUGH LOOKS ALMOST TOO STRONG...WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY THIS SEASON 
TWO -3/-4 SD 500MB TROUGHS DEVELOP...SO IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT HERE. 
ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO 
QUICKLY...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A TRACK AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WEST OF THE 
CURRENT GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER BEING SO FAR 
WEST...AND THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM ALL OF ITS ENSEMBLES. NHC/HPC 
CURRENTLY SUPPORT A TRACK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO...CLOSE TO THE 
CMC.

ONE THING APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN...WARM WATER TEMPS AND GREAT 300MB 
VENTILATION/COUPLED JET STRUCTURE (70+ KT JETS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE 
STORM) AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO EXTRA-TROPICAL WILL SUPPORT A 
VERY LARGE AND INTENSE CYCLONE...EVEN IF THE DIRECT EFFECTS 
(WIND/RAIN) ARE MINIMAL IN THE LOCAL AREA. STILL...A CONSENSUS TRACK 
WOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED NORTH WINDS AND AT LEAST SCHC OF 
PRECIP...HIGHEST AT THE COAST...WHICH AGREES WITH CONTINUITY AND 
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. LARGE SURF, STRONG 
RIP CURRENTS, AND SOME COASTAL EROSION APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO SEVERAL 
DAYS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE/LONG PERIOD SWELL COINCIDING WITH 
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES NEXT WKND.

ADDITIONALLY...AS IF MONITORING SANDY IS NOT ENOUGH...A COLD FRONT 
BENEATH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA 
SOMETIME DURING THE WKND. TIMING WILL BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY WHAT 
EVENTUALLY HAPPENS WITH SANDY. INHERITED SHOWS FROPA ON 
SATURDAY...THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST...BUT AGAIN VERY UNCERTAIN 
ON D5. GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY 
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND HER STEALING MUCH 
OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...AFTER A WEEK OF ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE FELT BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE 
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THERE IS JUST UNDER 1000 FEET OF DECENT 
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE RAPID DRYING 
BEGINS ALOFT. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME GROUND FOG THROUGH 
DAYBREAK. THE ODDS OF THIS ARE BEST AT THE CRE & LBT AIRPORTS... 
ALTHOUGH IFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AFTER DAYBREAK CLEAR SKIES AND 
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY MORNINGS FROM GROUND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN 
CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. WIND DIRECTIONS 
WILL ASSUME A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PATTERN WITH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS 
MORNING TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE. THE 
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WILL RESUME TONIGHT. WITH VIRTUALLY NO SHORT 
PERIOD WIND WAVES TO CONTEND WITH SEAS WILL BE VIRTUALLY ALL 
SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR THE GRADIENT TO 
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE 
PRIMARILY E/NE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...FROM 
5-10 KTS TO AS MUCH AS 15 KTS LATE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN WATERS. AT THE SAME TIME THE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE...THE 
LEADING EDGE OF SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL ENTER THE WATERS. 
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF 
SANDY...BUT AT LEAST SOME SIGNIFICANT SWELL SEEMS LIKELY BEGINNING 
LATE IN THE SHORT TERM. CURRENT FORECAST SEAS RISE FROM 2-3 FT 
WEDNESDAY...TO 3-6 FT LATE THURSDAY (HIGHEST SOUTHERN WATERS)...AND 
ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY POOR CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS DURING 
THE EXTENDED DUE TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM SANDY. ALTHOUGH 
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS 
STORM...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE 
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI/SAT. THIS WILL BRING AN 
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KTS OR 
MORE...GUSTING TO 30 KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER. AS THIS IS ONGOING...THE 
HIGH AMPLITUDE SWELL WILL INCREASINGLY IMPACT THE WATERS...WITH SOME 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN E/SE SWELL OF 12FT/12SEC COMING IN ON 
SATURDAY. AT LEAST SCA THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET THROUGH THE 
PERIOD...WITH WAVES BECOMING AS HIGH AS 7-10 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW

259 
FXUS62 KILM 230724
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
324 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH 
THURSDAY...MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM 
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM SANDY JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH INTO THE BAHAMAS WHILE STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE LATER
THIS WEEK. THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE WAVES WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALMOST 
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE 
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST 
TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD 
REACH +15C TODAY. LOWERING SUN ANGLES MEAN WE'LL ONLY MIX UP TO 
ABOUT 3500 FT...FAR SHORT OF THE POTENTIAL THIS AIRMASS WOULD HAVE 
DURING THE SUMMER. (JUST FOR FUN...MID-SUMMER INSOLATION WOULD 
PROBABLY GIVE UPPER 80S TODAY)  OUR HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 70S 
TODAY WITH SOME MID 70S NEAR THE BEACHES. 

GRADUALLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MEANS FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS 
LARGE SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. BOTH NAM AND GFS 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50-55 DEGREE F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING UP 
THROUGH ABOUT 1500 FT AFTER DARK...SUFFICIENT FOR FOG GIVEN 
ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 50 INLAND... 
WITH SOME MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...WARM AND QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND 
ALOFT...REMAIN OVER THE AREA. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL 
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH POSITION MEANS THAT THURSDAY WILL BE 
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RIGHT 
AROUND 80...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S ON THURSDAY. THESE 
REPRESENT VALUES OF AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. 
MINS AT NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S WED NIGHT...MID 50S 
THURSDAY THANKS TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS LIMITING RADIATIONAL 
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...EXCITING YET UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENTS IN THE 
EXTENDED RELATED TO NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM SANDY AND HOW SHE 
WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE WKND.

UNFORTUNATELY...OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY COME 
INTO LESS-AGREEMENT, AND THERE ARE TWO "CAMPS" AT THIS TIME. THE 
GFS-CAMP DEVELOPS SANDY RAPIDLY NEAR CUBA AND THEN PUSHES HER WELL 
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE US EAST COAST. THE MORE TROUBLING 
ECMWF/CMC CAMP DEVELOPS SANDY IN ROUGHLY THE SAME TIME FRAME...AND 
THEN BRINGS HER ALMOST DUE NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AS A VERY 
STRONG...REALLY AN HISTORIC...SYSTEM. 

THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES LIE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500MB TROUGH 
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND DIVE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT 
WKND...AND THE LEVEL OF RIDGE/BLOCKING THAT OCCURS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS 
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS HAS A WEAKER TROUGH WHICH THEN CANNOT 
CAPTURE SANDY TO SPIN HER BACK TO THE NORTH...AND A MORE RAPIDLY 
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE WHICH ENABLES SANDY TO DRIFT EAST BENEATH THE 
WEAKNESS. THE ECMWF/CMC SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH WHICH IS 
ABLE TO PULL SANDY BACK TOWARDS THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SINCE SHE IS 
SLOWED BY MORE PRONOUNCED DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. WHILE THE ECMWF 
TROUGH LOOKS ALMOST TOO STRONG...WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY THIS SEASON 
TWO -3/-4 SD 500MB TROUGHS DEVELOP...SO IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT HERE. 
ADDITIONALLY...GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO BREAK DOWN RIDGES TOO 
QUICKLY...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A TRACK AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WEST OF THE 
CURRENT GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER BEING SO FAR 
WEST...AND THE GFS HAS SUPPORT FROM ALL OF ITS ENSEMBLES. NHC/HPC 
CURRENTLY SUPPORT A TRACK SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO...CLOSE TO THE 
CMC.

ONE THING APPEARS NEARLY CERTAIN...WARM WATER TEMPS AND GREAT 300MB 
VENTILATION/COUPLED JET STRUCTURE (70+ KT JETS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE 
STORM) AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO EXTRA-TROPICAL WILL SUPPORT A 
VERY LARGE AND INTENSE CYCLONE...EVEN IF THE DIRECT EFFECTS 
(WIND/RAIN) ARE MINIMAL IN THE LOCAL AREA. STILL...A CONSENSUS TRACK 
WOULD BRING SOME ENHANCED NORTH WINDS AND AT LEAST SCHC OF 
PRECIP...HIGHEST AT THE COAST...WHICH AGREES WITH CONTINUITY AND 
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. LARGE SURF, STRONG 
RIP CURRENTS, AND SOME COASTAL EROSION APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO SEVERAL 
DAYS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE/LONG PERIOD SWELL COINCIDING WITH 
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES NEXT WKND.

ADDITIONALLY...AS IF MONITORING SANDY IS NOT ENOUGH...A COLD FRONT 
BENEATH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE AREA 
SOMETIME DURING THE WKND. TIMING WILL BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY WHAT 
EVENTUALLY HAPPENS WITH SANDY. INHERITED SHOWS FROPA ON 
SATURDAY...THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT FAST...BUT AGAIN VERY UNCERTAIN 
ON D5. GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...POSSIBLY 
DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND HER STEALING MUCH 
OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...AFTER A WEEK OF ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE FELT BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE 
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THERE IS JUST UNDER 1000 FEET OF DECENT 
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEFORE RAPID DRYING 
BEGINS ALOFT. THIS IS JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME GROUND FOG THROUGH 
DAYBREAK. THE ODDS OF THIS ARE BEST AT THE CRE & LBT AIRPORTS... 
ALTHOUGH IFR VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AFTER DAYBREAK CLEAR SKIES AND 
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY MORNINGS FROM GROUND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN 
CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. WIND DIRECTIONS 
WILL ASSUME A DIURNALLY-DRIVEN PATTERN WITH NORTHEAST WINDS THIS 
MORNING TURNING ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE. THE 
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WILL RESUME TONIGHT. WITH VIRTUALLY NO SHORT 
PERIOD WIND WAVES TO CONTEND WITH SEAS WILL BE VIRTUALLY ALL 
SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 9 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR THE GRADIENT TO 
TIGHTEN AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE 
PRIMARILY E/NE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...FROM 
5-10 KTS TO AS MUCH AS 15 KTS LATE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN WATERS. AT THE SAME TIME THE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE...THE 
LEADING EDGE OF SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY WILL ENTER THE WATERS. 
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF 
SANDY...BUT AT LEAST SOME SIGNIFICANT SWELL SEEMS LIKELY BEGINNING 
LATE IN THE SHORT TERM. CURRENT FORECAST SEAS RISE FROM 2-3 FT 
WEDNESDAY...TO 3-6 FT LATE THURSDAY (HIGHEST SOUTHERN WATERS)...AND 
ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY POOR CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS DURING 
THE EXTENDED DUE TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM SANDY. ALTHOUGH 
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS 
STORM...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A STRONG TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE 
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRI/SAT. THIS WILL BRING AN 
EXTENDED PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KTS OR 
MORE...GUSTING TO 30 KTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER. AS THIS IS ONGOING...THE 
HIGH AMPLITUDE SWELL WILL INCREASINGLY IMPACT THE WATERS...WITH SOME 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AN E/SE SWELL OF 12FT/12SEC COMING IN ON 
SATURDAY. AT LEAST SCA THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET THROUGH THE 
PERIOD...WITH WAVES BECOMING AS HIGH AS 7-10 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...TRA/JDW