National Weather Service Raw Text Product

934 
FXUS65 KVEF 141631
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
930 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TO START THE 
WEEK. A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PASS TO THE 
NORTH...SUPPLYING THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES 
OF COOLING FOR MID WEEK AND ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. NORTH WINDS GUSTS 
UP TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY 
TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...PROVIDING 
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY 
CLOSE TO THEIR SEASONAL NORMS TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX. WIND GUSTS AT KIFP 
HAVE BEEN 25 TO 30 MPH THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS HAVE ALSO 
PICKED UP FURTHER SOUTH AT KEED AND LAKE HAVASU CITY. FORECAST ON 
TRACK AND NO UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
249 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN ELY AND NEEDLES INCREASING AT THIS TIME. IN 
RESPONSE...NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE ALREADY 
OCCURRING WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AT BULLHEAD CITY AIRPORT. 
STRONGEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE BULLHEAD CITY/LAUGHLIN AREA 
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. A 
NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE COLORADO RIVER 
VALLEY AS WELL BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. OTHERWISE TODAY...DRY WITH 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE NORTHWEST STATES ON MONDAY AND 
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WILL KNOCK DOWN OUR RIDGE A BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL 
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH HIGH CLOUDS PASSING 
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE 
SWEEPING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONGER 
DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.     

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SOME INCREASE IN NORTH 
WIND IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT 
OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES. OTHERWISE...TYPICAL 
OCTOBER WEATHER IN STORE WITH DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES 
WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS PACIFIC 
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS 
SOLUTION DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF FORECASTING A LONG 
WAVE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND A WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE GFS HAS A MUCH MORE 
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE 
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD BRING REMNANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY THAN THE GFS WOULD INDICATE. 
FOR NOW... DECIDED TO MAINTAIN INHERITED SILENT POPS AND WILL 
REFOCUS AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS FAVORING A 
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AT NIGHT AND A NORTHEAST TO VARIABLE DIRECTION 
EACH AFTERNOON. SKIES TO REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH 
CLOUDS PASSING BY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND CONDITIONS TODAY EXCEPT FOR NORTH 
WINDS 15-25KTS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OCCASIONAL HIGH 
CLOUDS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL 
REMAIN CLEAR. 
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

CZYZYK/PIERCE/SALMEN

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