423 
FXUS65 KTFX 031008
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
408 AM MDT WED OCT 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIPITATION STARTED AS RAIN MOST AREAS BUT CHANGED QUICKLY TO
SNOW AS THE COLD AIR MOVED SOUTH. SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4 INCHES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND OVER
ADJACENT PLAINS. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. RAIN
AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
THIS AFTERNOON. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED INSTABILITY RESULTING IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EMANUEL

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A TROUGH 
IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA EARLY FRIDAY. ISOLATED LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...MAINLY NEAR HIGHER 
TERRAIN...AND MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK 
FAIRLY QUIET WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO 
MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA MID-MONDAY WITH EFFECTS LINGERING 
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE 
SEEN WITH THIS TROUGH...ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. THE REGION 
SHOULD STAY UNDER A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH 
THE LONG TERM AND THUS GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR 
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AS MODEL RUNS 
SHIFT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL SATURDAY AND WARM UP AGAIN 
STARTING SUNDAY. HIGHS NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MAYBE 
60 AT MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO 
LOW 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST PLACES AT 
LEAST TOUCHING THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH THE WEEK. 

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
THE COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA 
(INCLUDING THE KGTF/KLWT/KHLN AREAS). IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH 
THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA (INCLUDING KBZN) BY 12Z. LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AREAS 
OF RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING 
OVER TO SNOW OVERNIGHT (KCTB HAS ALREADY CHANGED OVER). WIDESPREAD 
IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT 
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MONTANA. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON 
WEDNESDAY BUT MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.  
COULSTON/MLV

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  24  41  26 /  80  20  20  20 
CTB  41  21  41  21 /  70  20  10  20 
HLN  46  23  43  22 /  70  20  10  20 
BZN  48  18  44  18 /  60  20  10  20 
WEY  46  10  45   9 /  20  20  10  20 
DLN  50  18  44  18 /  30  10  10  10 
HVR  48  24  44  23 /  70  20  20  20 
LWT  41  20  39  20 /  80  30  20  20 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR BLAINE...CASCADE...CHOUTEAU...
EASTERN PONDERA...EASTERN TETON...FERGUS...HILL...LIBERTY...
TOOLE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN LEWIS AND CLARK...EASTERN GLACIER...JUDITH BASIN...
MEAGHER...NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY 
MOUNTAIN FRONT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMANUEL
LONG TERM...GUSTAFSON
AVIATION...COULSTON

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS