875 
FXUS63 KMPX 302106
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
406 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER WARM ONE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIRRUS PUSHING OVER SERN MN
AND WRN WI AS UPPER MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD FROM THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING
NWRN MN AND ERN SD HAS SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EVEN A FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN NOTED NEAR THE NE/SD LINE.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WRN MN AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE ST CROIX
RIVER AND SERN MN AROUND 6 AM...AND THE EAU CLAIRE AREA BY NOON
MONDAY. STILL ANTICIPATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FROPA TONIGHT...BUT CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN MONDAY MORNING AND THE
FRONT WILL WASH OUT. THUS...DIMINISHING POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED MONDAY MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING TRACE OR
A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS...DRIER AIR...AND A SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON OVER WRN MN. MIN RH VALUES AROUND 25 PCT AND WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH WILL MAKE FOR MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN HOW DRY IT IS AND REPORTS RECEIVED TODAY
OF FIRES IN NWRN MN...FELT IT WAS JUSTIFIED TO GO WITH AT LEAST A
WATCH ATTM. 

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT. WENT A
FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPS WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THE RIDGE AXIS.

RETURN FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY BUT ANY REAL WARM AIR ALOFT WILL
REMAIN WEST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A BAGGY TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT
925 MB SHOULD MAKE FOR A UNIFORM TEMPERATURE FIELD CWA WIDE IN THE
UPPER 60S OR LOW 70S.

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER NEBRASKA WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN MN WEDNESDAY EVENING.
WARM SECTOR AIR WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ANY RAINFALL LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. 

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SIGNIFICANT MODEL INCONSISTENCIES PERSIST THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THIS TIME THE CMC HAS JUMPED INTO THE ECMWF
CAMP WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEEPENS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE
REGION BECOMES DRY SLOTTED THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION AND DEPICTS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH OVER NRN
WI...ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO WORK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH ACCUMULATING DEFORMATION SNOWS FALLING OVER WRN MN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS FORECAST LEANS MUCH MORE TOWARD THE FORMER
SOLUTION WITH MILDER AND DRIER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE. 

DEPENDING HOW THE RESULTANT OCCLUDING AND SLOW MOVING LOW BETWEEN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND HUDSON BAY MEANDERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...CLOUDS AND A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY WORK SOUTH
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL MN/WRN...A LA CANADIAN MODEL. ECMWF QPF
FIELDS ARE DRY SO NOT OPTIMISTIC ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS WILL KEEP THE REGION
IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. 

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL BECOME NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER ITS PASSAGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...ANY PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT AND ISOLATED.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY...BUT
SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWEST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND
11-12Z MONDAY MORNING. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IF ANY PRECIP...AND
CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN WILL INTO VFR CATEGORY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS ESE AT 05KTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS. 
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH IFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS SW AT 10KTS
BECOMING NW AT 15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING 
     FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-KANDIYOHI-
     LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-
     RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-YELLOW 
     MEDICINE.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

BORGHOFF/JRB