National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDLBF
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDLBF
Product Timestamp: 2012-09-15 17:49 UTC
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123 FXUS63 KLBF 151749 AFDLBF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1249 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 TO 25 KTS. WINDS DECOUPLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER A BRIEF INCREASE BETWEEN SUNSET AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THE AREA OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE BRIEF STRONG WINDS...25 TO 35 KTS...IS OVER NW NEBRASKA...WEST OF KVTN. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO FAR NW NEBRASKA TOMORROW MORNING. FRONT SHOULD REMAIN W OF THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 18Z...WITH PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR KVTN AND EVENING FOR KLBF. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2012/ SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...AFTER A WARM START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATE IN THE DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FIRE CONCERNS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW AS GUSTY WINDS AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83. AFTER A COOL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DISCUSSION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TODAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...USHERING IN WIDESPREAD 80S. ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO VALENTINE DURING AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE RAW NAM AND SREF DATA FOR SUNDAY INSTEAD OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TOO COOL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE RATHER CHILLY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S. ALSO...THERE MAY BE A CONCERN FOR FROST ON MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A COUPLE MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO GET IS DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. FIRE WEATHER...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EAST OF THIS TROUGH...WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FOR ALL AREAS...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS. NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE...WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EXISTS AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE...LIGHTER WINDS WILL FACILITATE EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. WITH THIS IN MIND...CANCELED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM ZONES NEZ210 AND NEZ219. ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...MAY PRODUCE RED FLAG CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE. EAST OF THE BEFORE MENTIONED LINE...GUIDANCE WINDS ARE RUNNING IN THE 12 TO 18 KT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 25 MPH. WEST OF THIS LINE...LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER UNDER CRITICAL LEVELS. MINIMUM RH'S WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE CWA WIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ204-206-208-209. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NEZ206-208-209-219. && $$ AVIATION...MASEK