AFOS product AFDLBF
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLBF
Product Timestamp: 2012-09-15 17:49 UTC

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FXUS63 KLBF 151749
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1249 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2012

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TODAY...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 TO 25 KTS. WINDS DECOUPLE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER A BRIEF INCREASE BETWEEN SUNSET AND DECOUPLING
OF WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN. THE AREA OF MOST
CONCERN FOR THE BRIEF STRONG WINDS...25 TO 35 KTS...IS OVER NW
NEBRASKA...WEST OF KVTN. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING INTO FAR NW NEBRASKA TOMORROW MORNING. FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN W OF THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 18Z...WITH PASSAGE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR KVTN AND EVENING FOR KLBF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2012/

SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. 
HOWEVER...AFTER A WARM START ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATE 
IN THE DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FIRE 
CONCERNS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW AS GUSTY 
WINDS AND EXTREMELY DRY AIR ARE EXPECTED. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST 
OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83. AFTER A COOL MONDAY AND MONDAY 
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL 
CANADA TODAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FROM BRITISH 
COLUMBIA. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON 
SUNDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN TO 
NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TODAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...USHERING IN WIDESPREAD 80S. 
ON SUNDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE COLD 
FRONT...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO VALENTINE DURING 
AFTERNOON. A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH 
THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
BEHIND THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE RAW NAM AND SREF DATA FOR
SUNDAY INSTEAD OF THE MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMED TOO COOL. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE
RATHER CHILLY...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S. ALSO...THERE MAY BE A
CONCERN FOR FROST ON MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...A COUPLE MORE UPPER
LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO GET IS DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES.

FIRE WEATHER...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS 
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL 
INCREASE EAST OF THIS TROUGH...WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS 
UP TO 25 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS ARE 
EXPECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. FOR ALL AREAS...MINIMUM RELATIVE 
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP DOWN TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH 
WILL APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS. NORTH OF THE 
INTERSTATE...WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED...CRITICAL FIRE 
DANGER EXISTS AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. SOUTH OF THE 
INTERSTATE...LIGHTER WINDS WILL FACILITATE EXTREME TO NEAR CRITICAL 
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. WITH THIS IN MIND...CANCELED THE FIRE 
WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM ZONES NEZ210 AND NEZ219.   

ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL 
NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...ALONG 
WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...MAY PRODUCE RED FLAG 
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS 
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE.  EAST 
OF THE BEFORE MENTIONED LINE...GUIDANCE WINDS ARE RUNNING IN THE 12 
TO 18 KT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 25 MPH. 
WEST OF THIS LINE...LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL KEEP FIRE 
DANGER UNDER CRITICAL LEVELS. MINIMUM RH'S WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 10 
TO 20 PERCENT RANGE CWA WIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE IS 
EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN 
MIND...WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO 
NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR 
NEZ204-206-208-209.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING 
FOR NEZ206-208-209-219.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MASEK