443 
FXUS65 KTFX 022034
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
234 PM MDT SUN SEP 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. EXPECT ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. ON LABOR DAY EXPECT
A GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT BUT IT WILL
HAVE MORE MOISTURE WITH IT. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTH. EXPECT A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS WHICH WILL LAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY A CANADIAN WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL SWING
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. IT WILL BRING A LITTLE COOLER AIRMASS. IN
THE WAKE OF THE CANADIAN WEATHER DISTURBANCE EXPECT MOISTURE TO
DECREASE IN THE NORTH. BLANK

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY OVERVIEW...A RATHER ROLLER-COASTER 
LIKE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OVER THE 
REGION WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY...AS WE WILL BE IN-BETWEEN STORM 
SYSTEMS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL FOR 
MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER FAST MOVING ALBERTA 
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. MORNING MODEL RUNS 
HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ARE MUCH DRIER 
AND NOT AS COLD. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST 
ON THE CHANCE THAT THE NEXT SET OF MODEL RUNS COULD FLIP-FLOP BACK 
TO THE COOLER FORECAST. HAVE LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE BUT HAVE TWEAK 
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A FAST BUILDING 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REBUILD OVER THE REGION STARTING ON FRIDAY AND 
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE END RESULT...MOSTLY DRY 
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN 
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLE (SEPTEMBER 
LIKE)...THUS A BIT CHILLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND ON THE COOL 
SIDE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

NEXT SUNDAY...MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THEY ARE NOW IN 
DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING THIS FEATURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE 
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION 
CHANCES AND RAISED TEMPERATURES A TAD. BRUSDA/MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1830Z.
A CHINOOK ARCH ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL 
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 03Z MONDAY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST 
AREA IS CLEAR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS 
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. AREAS OF SMOKE AND MORNING FOG COULD REDUCE 
VISIBILITIES IN THE HIGHER SOUTHWEST VALLEYS TO LIFR/IFR AT TIMES... 
ESPECIALLY FROM 10Z TO 16Z. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY DARK TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LABOR DAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT. WITH CONTINUED LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LIKELY HAVE
EXTENDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT UNTIL 9
PM MONDAY EVENING. ON TUESDAY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA BEHIND A CANADIAN COLD FRONT. HOWEVER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  80  45  73 /   0   0  10  10 
CTB  40  76  41  70 /   0   0  20  20 
HLN  46  81  48  77 /   0   0  10  10 
BZN  38  81  40  77 /   0   0   0  10 
WEY  28  73  29  72 /   0   0   0  10 
DLN  38  81  41  77 /   0   0   0  10 
HVR  44  79  45  74 /   0   0  20  20 
LWT  41  76  43  69 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING BLAINE...
BROADWATER...CASCADE...CHOUTEAU...FERGUS...GALLATIN...HILL...
JEFFERSON...JUDITH BASIN...MADISON...MEAGHER.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
LEWIS AND CLARK...EASTERN GLACIER...EASTERN PONDERA...EASTERN 
TETON...LIBERTY...NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY 
MOUNTAIN FRONT...TOOLE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BLANK
LONG TERM...MPJ
AVIATION...MPJ

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS