867 
FXUS65 KBYZ 290246
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 
846 PM MDT TUE AUG 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...

GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH A VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW
THE ATMOSPHERE TO COOL DECENTLY TONIGHT...BUT LOW TO MID LEVELS
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND COUNTERACT THE POTENTIAL
COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A TAD TOO WARM...BUT SHOULD BE VERY
CLOSE SO WILL LET RIDE. HUMIDITIES WERE RECOVERING SLOWLY BUT WITH
MINIMUMS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT TODAY...THEY
HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO. 00Z WRF COMING IN WITH AN EARLY FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS QUICKLY TURNING TO THE NORTH. WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE 00Z GFS. RED FLAG LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE
EVEN WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE...HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW
QUITE EARLY IN THE DAY. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEST COAST ON
FRIDAY AND WILL SET UP AN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SC/SE MT.
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TROUGH WILL BRING LOWER
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. GFS/ECMWF
CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
SLOWLY FILLING IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ARE
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND
ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL DRY OUT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE EXITING
TROUGH. THIS WILL SET UP A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING DOWN SLOPE
WINDS TO DEVELOP. THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RICHMOND


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH WINDS TAPERING OFF.
THE ONLY AVIATIONS HAZARDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN SMOKE. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/096 054/085 055/086 056/090 053/081 055/083 055/081
    00/U    10/U    01/U    22/T    21/U    01/U    10/U
LVM 054/093 043/080 044/084 047/085 045/079 047/081 046/080
    11/N    10/U    01/U    22/T    21/U    10/U    10/U
HDN 063/099 056/087 055/091 057/092 053/085 056/087 056/082
    01/U    10/U    01/U    22/T    21/U    01/U    10/U
MLS 069/099 058/087 057/089 059/091 054/079 059/084 058/082
    01/U    10/U    01/U    12/T    21/U    01/U    10/U
4BQ 067/100 058/088 056/088 060/092 055/084 059/083 057/080
    01/U    10/U    01/U    22/T    21/U    01/U    10/U
BHK 065/099 061/084 058/084 061/087 056/083 057/081 055/080
    01/U    11/U    11/U    12/T    21/U    01/U    10/U
SHR 061/097 055/082 053/087 054/088 050/080 053/081 052/078
    11/U    10/U    12/T    22/T    21/U    01/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
      FOR ZONES 117-123>133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
      FOR ZONES 274-284.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS