National Weather Service Raw Text Product

114 
FXUS63 KTOP 271722
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1222 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE PREV DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH RIDGING AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONCERN CONTINUES FOR FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT 
AS WINDS LIKELY BECOME CALM. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS POOR FOR 
DETERMINING WHETHER FOG WILL FORM. THE NAM LOOKS TO DRY IN THE 
BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE GFS BOUNDARY LAYER PROGS HAVE LEFT SOMETHING 
TO BE DESIRED ALL SUMMER. THINK THAT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE GIVEN 
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES. CONFIDENCE THAT THERE 
WILL BE LIFR VSBY IS LOW SINCE WE SHOULD HAVE BETTER MIXING TODAY 
AND THE GROUND SEEMS TO HAVE SOAKED UP ALL THE RAINFALL. BECAUSE OF 
THIS WILL ONLY MAINTAIN THE MVFR VSBY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS 
SHIFT DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR FOG TUESDAY MORNING. 

WOLTERS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /426 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2012/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 0730Z CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY DRY AIR
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITHIN SUBSIDENCE REGION OVER THE 
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SFC...AXIS OF RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTH 
CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN NE IS AIDING THE FORMATION OF GROUND FOG IN 
SOME AREAS OVER THE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THROUGH 
SUNRISE...EXPECT AREAS OF GROUNDS FOG TO CONTINUE TO 
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING 
AREA CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WHERE MIXING IS MINIMAL IF AT ALL. 
EITHER WAY...ANY FOG EARLY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH NEAR FULL 
SUNSHINE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...SO TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 
UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 ACROSS THE CWA. TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE WILL AGAIN BE 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MORE GROUND FOG 
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK...THE EASTERN TROUGH 
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST 
ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL FORCE THE RIDGE AXIS 
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL 
OVERALL KEEP SUBSIDENCE AND A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS 
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN HIGHS TO THE 
MIDDLE 90S BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE NOW BEGINNING 
TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC 
WILL TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN A 
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK INTO AR AND MO BY THE END OF THE WORK 
WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. WITH CONFIDENCE NOW A LITTLE HIGHER THAT 
THIS TRACK COULD AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE 
CWA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I 35. 
WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. 63

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$