756 
FXUS64 KBMX 242050
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
350 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ON THE RADAR ACROSS EASTERN 
ALABAMA. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE EAST TODAY AS 
EASTERLY WINDS HAVE ADVECTED IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. SHOWERS OR 
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS EAST ALABAMA. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE 
MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE 
HIGH MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. HIGHER PW VALUES AND DEWPOINTS 
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA BUT WITH A LACK OF ANY REAL UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW OR LIFTING MECHANISM AT THE SURFACE EXPECT ONLY AN 
ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. 

OF COURSE THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE TROPICS. THE FORECAST BEYOND 
TUESDAY WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK OF ISSAC. TROPICAL STORM 
ISSAC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THE FORECAST 
FROM NHC IS FOR ISSAC TO MOVE OVER CUBA DURING THE WEEKEND AND 
EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. FROM 
THERE...ISSAC STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AND MAKES 
LANDFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF 
UNCERTAINTY WITH MANY MODEL RUNS STILL TO COME BEFORE THE SYSTEM 
MOVES INTO THE GULF AND MAKES LANDFALL. THERE IS STILL A WIDE REALM 
OF POSSIBILITIES. OVERALL THE 12Z MODELS CAME IN TRENDING FURTHER TO 
THE EAST. THE 12Z GFS IS FAIRLY FAST WITH ISSAC AS IT MOVES QUICKLY 
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE BIG BEND 
AREA OF FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN MAKES A QUICK EXIT TO THE 
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE 12Z CANADIAN CAME IN 
MUCH FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE 12Z CANADIAN TURNS THE SYSTEM 
NORTHWARD AFTER MOVING OVER CUBA AND MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKED LIKE THE OVERALL TREND 
WAS FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER...THEN THE 12Z ECMWF CAME IN MUCH SLOWER 
WITH ISSAC AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND MAKES LANDFALL 
ALONG THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI COAST. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PUT 
CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. 
THEREFORE...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHAT 
IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM ISSAC. EVEN THE 
SLOWER ECMWF...MOVES ISSAC NORTH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO 
EARLY FRIDAY. PLEASE STAY AWARE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK TO FORECAST UPDATES REGARDING ISSAC AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS 
TO CENTRAL ALABAMA.

MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT SOME PATCH BR IS
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  89  64  90  66 /  10  10  10  10  10 
ANNISTON    66  89  65  90  66 /  10  10  10  10  10 
BIRMINGHAM  68  89  68  90  69 /  10  10  10  10  10 
TUSCALOOSA  68  91  69  92  68 /   0  10  10  10  10 
CALERA      68  90  67  90  69 /  10  10  10  10  10 
AUBURN      67  89  66  89  69 /  10  10  10  10  10 
MONTGOMERY  69  93  68  93  69 /  10  10  10  10  10 
TROY        67  90  67  90  68 /  10  10  10   0  10 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE. 

&&

&&