National Weather Service Raw Text Product

553 
FXUS63 KLBF 061127 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
627 AM CDT MON AUG 6 2012

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...VISUAL FLIGHT RULES TODAY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. 
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND CAPABLE OF STRONG ERRATIC WINDS AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAIN. STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
KANW TO KAIA AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AS IT
DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NEBRASKA KANSAS BORDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT MON AUG 6 2012/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND TSTM CHANCES ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR 
TODAY...WITH MORE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY. AS A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN 
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS 
FRONT...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY 
TO CREATE DANGEROUS WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. DESPITE SOME HIGHER DEW 
POINTS /IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING/ MODEL SOUNDINGS 
SUPPORT THAT MOISTURE MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINTS 
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS COMBINED WITH 
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 103 SHOULD CREATE CRITICALLY 
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. TO BOOT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 
ISOLATED HIGH BASED TSTMS CONTAINING DRY LIGHTNING ALONG THE COLD 
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS...WILL GO AHEAD 
AND UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES IN 
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE 
INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. 
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE NOTED...WITH SOUTHERLY LLJ ADVECTING 12 TO 
14C DEW POINTS INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY 
TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED MOISTURE...AS SOME RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE 
STORMS THIS EVENING. A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO 
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE 
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SREF INDICATES STORMS MAY CONGEAL 
SOMEWHAT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TUESDAY 
EVENING...AND HAVE CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF 
THAT OCCURRING. A SFC LOW WILL DROP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
WEDNESDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHENING A BIT ACROSS OUR
REGION. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA...WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SPIKING ONCE 
AGAIN.  /TAYLOR

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 

THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AND BUILD ACROSS THE 
FOUR CORNERS REGION. A MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK SEMI-STATIONARY 
FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE AREA...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ANY WEAK 
IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR 
TSTMS SEEMS WARRANTED FROM TIME TO TIME. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO 
COME LATE IN THE WEEK /FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY/ AS A POTENT WAVE 
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE WISE...THE WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND
GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL 
NEBRASKA.  /TAYLOR


FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO RED FLAG 
WARNING DUE TO EXPECTED DRY LIGHTNING. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA. HIGH BASED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DRY LIGHTNING. THIS SCENARIO HAS PLAYED
OUT TIME AND AGAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SEVERAL LARGE FIRES HAVE BEEN INITIATED BY
LIGHTNING AND VERY DRY FUELS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
NORTHERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH. 

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 
NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT /11 PM MDT/ TONIGHT
FOR NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER