129 
FXUS61 KCAR 050436
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1235 AM UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES
NEEDED OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE STATE WILL MOVE
EAST TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE BEHIND THE HIGH WILL PUSH HUMID
AIR BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASINGLY HUMID
AIR MAY RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DOWNEAST REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE VERY
WARM...BREEZY AND HUMID AS THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND. SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRAY INTO WESTERN AREA LATE IN THE
DAY. CAPES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 300 AND 500 J/KG
SO WIDESPREAD...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS SINCE THE GRADIENT WILL BE
STRONG TO BEGIN WITH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAJOR FEATURE FOR THE SHORT RANGE WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS BEGINNING IN THE EARLY TO MID EVENING
AND REACH AREAS DOWNEAST BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WHILE THERE WILL
NOT BE A LOT OF INSTABILITY DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT BEING
AT NIGHT THE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG. THEREFORE, OPTED TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE LAST PACKAGE AND KEEP THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MOST AREAS SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE WEST.

THE LAST OF ANY SHOWERS WILL CLEAR DOWNEAST AREAS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS FRONT DEPARTS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING DEW
POINTS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. THIS HIGH
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING CONTINUING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH HANGS ON RIGHT THROUGH THIS TERM W/THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT BY THE END OF THE TERM(LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY). 

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
AFFECT THE REGION INTO MID-WEEK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE WILL
BE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT
THE SFC SLIDES THROUGH THE STATE. THIS WILL MEAN THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS W/THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT ON
THURSDAY AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND ALSO THE GFS. DECIDED TO GO
W/HIGHEST POPS(30-40%) FOR THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE 
CWA WHERE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
NOW THE ECMWF TO PUSH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION BY SATURDAY.
THE UPPER TROF IS SHOWN TO DIG WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE LOW AT THE
SFC TO INTENSIFY. SINCE THIS IS DAY 6-7, DECIDED TO KEEP 40% POPS
IN THERE FOR RAIN CHANCES. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODEL RUNS TO
SEE HOW THE LONG RANGE HANDLES THIS SYSTEM. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 
STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS MAXES FOR THIS RUN BUT ADJUSTED THE MINS UP
A CATEGORY BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR
LATE TONIGHT DOWNEAST IN SOME FOG. PATCHY FOG MAY LOWER VSBY IN A
FEW NORTHERN SIGHTS TOWARD MORNING TOO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. 


SHORT TERM:
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO A PERIOD OF MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR KBHB.
CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT LATE SUNDAY. SEAS WILL 
BE BUILDING ON SUNDAY REACHING AROUND 4 FT BY LATE IN THE DAY.


SHORT TERM:
A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT AS WAVE HEIGHTS RISE TO
NEAR 6 FT AND AND WINDS GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS. PATCHY FOG AND
SHOWERS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND FOG WILL DIMINISH MONDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/FITZSIMMONS