AFOS product AFDTFX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTFX
Product Timestamp: 2012-08-01 21:16 UTC

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FXUS65 KTFX 012116
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
316 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A PATTERN CHANGE IS
STILL ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
CUT BANK AREA EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY. FRIDAY
WILL BE COOL AND SHOWERY DURING THE MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING
FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
THURSDAY WILL COOL SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY. EMANUEL

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS EAST ALONG 
US U.S. CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN A 
CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT. RIDGING REBUILDS QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW OVER 
THE WEEKEND FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN 
REACHING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS BY SUNDAY. LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE COMBINATION OF WEEK ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE 
SW AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN CANADA COULD 
BRING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. 
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. HAVE 
KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD. HOENISCH


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE AREA WILL 
REMAIN BETWEEN A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND 
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL UNITED 
STATES...RESULTING IN A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND TONIGHT. 
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS.  
LANGLIEB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  84  50  73 /  10  10  60  30 
CTB  53  76  46  71 /  10  20  70  30 
HLN  55  86  57  76 /  10  10  20  30 
BZN  47  88  50  76 /  10  10  10  20 
WEY  35  78  37  70 /  10  10  10  10 
DLN  48  84  49  76 /  10  10  10  10 
HVR  55  85  52  71 /  10  10  60  50 
LWT  51  83  50  67 /  10  10  50  70 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY 
NIGHT BLAINE...BROADWATER...CASCADE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LEWIS 
AND CLARK...CHOUTEAU...EASTERN TETON...FERGUS...GALLATIN...
HILL...JEFFERSON...JUDITH BASIN...MEAGHER...NORTHERN ROCKY 
MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMANUEL
LONG TERM...HOENISCH
AVIATION...LANGLIEB

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS