AFOS product AFDFWD
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD
Product Timestamp: 2012-07-31 20:17 UTC

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FXUS64 KFWD 312017
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
317 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER SOME IN HOUSE DISCUSSION...WE/VE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HEAT
ADVISORY UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL
END IT AT THAT TIME.

THE STUBBORN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
BUT DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING A LITTLE FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS IT DRIFTS A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAT THE PAST FEW DAYS THIS
FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL FINALLY AMPLIFY A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY.THIS
WILL NUDGE THE UPPER HIGH WESTWARD A LITTLE WITH NORTHWEST TO
NORTH UPPER FLOW SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN CWA THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. MINOR RIPPLES WITHIN THIS UPPER FLOW AND SOME INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EAST TEXAS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE... 

NOTE: THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO SUFFER WITH A PROBLEM OF NOT
MIXING OUT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THIS RESULTS IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS
REMAINING TOO HIGH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SINCE THIS ALSO AFFECTS HEAT INDEX CALCULATIONS...WE ARE USING
NAM/ECMWF DEWPOINTS WHICH BETTER REFLECTS WHAT ACTUALLY IS
OCCURRING.  75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79 105  79 104  79 /   0   0   0   0   5 
WACO, TX              76 102  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0   5 
PARIS, TX             75 103  75 103  76 /   0   5   5   0   5 
DENTON, TX            78 105  78 105  78 /   0   0   0   0   5 
MCKINNEY, TX          77 104  78 104  78 /   0   0   0   0   5 
DALLAS, TX            80 105  80 104  80 /   0   0   0   0   5 
TERRELL, TX           76 103  76 102  76 /   0   0   0   0   5 
CORSICANA, TX         76 102  76 102  76 /   0   0   0   0   5 
TEMPLE, TX            74 101  74 101  74 /   0   0   0   0   5 
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75 104  75 104  75 /   0   0   0   0   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ091>095-101>107-
117>123.


&&

$$

 /75