053 
FXUS63 KTOP 301719
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1219 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE SHORT TERM...CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES 
TO PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. MOTION OF 
CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW 
BOUNDARY IS EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS TRAJECTORY SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF 
NORTHEAST KANSAS IN A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION NOW THROUGH 
THE MID MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY 
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE EASTERLY...THEREFORE SOUTHERN PUSH OF 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE INITIAL LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION. 
COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES...WITH A 
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER PERSISTING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY 
ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MORNING PRECIPITATION AND ANTICIPATED CLOUD 
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS IN THE LOWER 
90S. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST...EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD SHOULD RESIDE 
NEARBY WITH READINGS REACHING THE LOWER 100S. WITH THE CLOSE 
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THIS AREA...THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF AFTERNOON 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. 

THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FEATURES SIMILAR PLACEMENT OF SURFACE 
AND UPPER AIR FEATURES. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA WILL 
CONTINUE WITH THE EDGE OF A MODEST JET ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE 
NORTHERN CWA...WITH SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES GLANCING THE AREA. AT 
THE SURFACE...A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED NORTHWEST 
TO SOUTHEAST WILL LINGER ACROSS OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST EXISTS WITH SPECIFIC TIMING AND COVERAGE 
OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SUFFICIENT FOCI AND 
ASCENT WILL PERIODICALLY EXIST OVER THE AREA. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES 
MORE ZONAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION. 
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A 
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS 
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY 
COOLER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND AND A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

BLAIR

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY FROM THE EAST ALTHOUGH
WITH SOME VARIABILITY POSSIBLE...ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SCT TO BKN MID CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 12K TO 15K
RANGE...AND WHILE RADAR RETURNS SUGGEST SHOWERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT ANY PRECIP NEAR TAF SITES IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE...SO THE TAF IS FREE OF
PRECIP.

BARJENBRUCH

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$