213 
FXUS61 KRLX 301007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
602 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD ON MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES WEDNESDAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHAT A CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. MODELS ARE NOW 
HOLDING DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR 
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM TODAY. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT THE 
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...AND REDUCE POPS THERE. THIS WILL ALSO 
NECESSITATE RAISING HIGHS TODAY...AND DROPPING LOWS A BIT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AREA WILL CONT TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPR TROF WITH NW FLOW IN 
THE MID AND UPR LEVELS. UPR TROF LOOKS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS EASTERN
CONUS AMID A WARMING AND MOISTENING LLVL AIRMASS. LOOKING AT TWO
UPR LVL FEATURES...ONE PROGGED EARLY TUES AND THE OTHER LATE TUE.
MDLS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY W WITH FIRST FEATURE AS NOTED IN
NEAR TERM DISCUSSION. THIS WOULD KEEP MUCH OF CWA DRY FIRST HALF
OF TUES. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
DIGGING UPR TROF AND STILL POISED TO DROP S WITHIN AMPLIFYING
TROF LATE TUES. QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST SIGNIFICANT LEVEL
HOT UNSTABLE AIR CAN ADVECT FOR THIS TO INTERACT WITH. APPEARS
THIS MAY STAY JUST TO W OF CWA FOR ANY ORGANIZED SVR THREAT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. STILL COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT
ACROSS SE OH COINCIDING WITH MAX SFC HEATING. LAGGING SFC FRONT
TAKES ALL OF WED TO MOVE THRU WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PROGGED TO FORM OVER THE AREA. IN FACT BOUNDARY WILL SLIP THRU
CENTRAL/WESTERN KY AND MUCH OF TN VALLEY BEFORE CLEARING OUR CWA.
KEPT POPS LOW WITH THIS AS OVERALL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND VERY
WARM LEVEL UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS WEST OF CWA. HAVING SAID THAT STILL
EXPECT A FEW SHRA/TSRA WITH THE BOUNDARY. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN WED
NIGHT AND THUR WITH LOWER HUMIDITY BUT REMAINING WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRENDED TOWARD STRONGER AND LONGER PERIOD OF INFLUENCE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR THAT BEGINS WED AND CONTINUES THROUGH THU 
NT.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN STATES THIS 
WEEKEND WITH GFS REMAINING ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE SUITE OF SOLUTIONS 
BUT 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD GFS TIMING.  HAVE ONLY SLIGHT 
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION FRI...MAINLY ON HEATING AND 
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME INFLUENCE OF S/W TO THE 
N AND THE EVENTUAL APPROACH OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT.  THE 
EXISTENCE OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE W TO NW 
FLOW ALOFT...S OF THE MAIN S/W...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL 
FOR CONVECTION.  THESE FEATURES HAVE BEEN COMING AND GOING AND 
SHOWING UP AT VARIOUS INTENSITIES IN THE VARIOUS MODEL RUNS.  IT IS 
MESOSCALE CONVECTION ITSELF THAT WILL LIKELY DRIVE SUCH FEATURES IN 
THE END.  THE MAIN S/W PUSHES E SUN NT...WITH DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY 
ABLE TO FILTER SEWD INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

LIKE ECMWF AND HPC TREND OF TRENDING HIGHS HIGHER...TOWARD THE GFS.  
LOWS LOOKED GOOD...A LITTLE COOLER WED NT THEN WARM NIGHTS TO FOLLOW 
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING. A VFR CUMULUS 
FIELD CAN THEN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. WHILE NOT LIKELY...CAN 
NOT RULE OUT A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME 
PATCHY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN 
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG COULD VARY. 

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 07/30/12
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...RPY