178 
FXUS62 KMHX 260040
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
840 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF THE REGION WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS ERN NC SHIFTING
OFFSHORE ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO SLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CU IS
QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING BUT EXPECT TO
CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH AND POSSIBLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD
TONIGHT AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVES THROUGH NWLY FLOW ALOFT.
CONVECTION NEVER MATERIALIZED ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION IN THE FCST WITH THIS UPDATE AND EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. KMHX 88D RADAR DID INDICATE
STRONG ECHOES ACROSS DOWNEAST CARTERET CO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WERE ACTUALLY FALSE ECHOES DUE TO CHAFF...AND ARE JUST ABOUT GONE
AT THIS TIME. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CROSS OVER TEMPS AROUND 68F AND LOWS PROGGED IN THE L70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WED...TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN INLAND THU WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 20-22C SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S.
HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-109 DEGREES FOR MOST OF EASTERN NC THU
AFTERNOON...WILL ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT OBX HYDE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THU AFTERNOON...GIVEN
FORECASTED INSTABILITY AND SEABREEZE. ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY AND
THIS COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH MAX
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY DAY.
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE
SEABREEZE OVER INLAND AREAS ON FRIDAY. STILL EXPECT SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO DIG DOWN THE EAST COAST. THE GFS DEPICTS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ON SATURDAY THEN JUST
SOUTH OF REGION SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING MONDAY. THE ECMWF PUSHES
THRU FRONT SLOWLY THRU OVER THE WEEKEND AND TO JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA MONDAY. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE WAVY FRONT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE
REGION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. THE
FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE 
RATHER UNSETTLED. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR WEDS...AND WILL SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
AS OF 745 PM WED...EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. FLOW IS SHIFTING TO SLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
DISSIPATES TO THE S AND WEAK HIGH PRES OVER ERN NC SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS
CROSS OVER TEMPS ARE AROUND 68 AND LOWS EXPECTED IN THE L70S.
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AT ALL BUT EWN
HOWEVER THINK THIS IS OVERDONE. S/SW WINDS EXPECTED FOR THU WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15KT AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 
AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE
WEEKEND...COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS FOR THE
WEEKEND. CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ISOLATED MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 
AS OF 830 PM WED...WINDS SHIFTING TO E/SE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF THE REGION AND DISSIPATES WHILE
WEAK HIGH PRES OVER ERN NC SLIDES OFF THE COAST. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLY ACROSS ALL WATERS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS GRADIENTS BEGIN
TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. GRADIENTS TIGHTEN FURTHER THU AS THE THERMAL
TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND EXPECT S/SWLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KT THU AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE AROUND 2-4
FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THU. PREDOMINANT WAVE PERIODS ARE PRESENTLY
AROUND 7 SECONDS BUT AN UNDERLYING 13 SEC SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME PREDOMINANT THIS EVENING AS WIND DRIVEN WAVES SUBSIDE. THIS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS STRENGTHENING S/SWLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FRESH WIND WAVE AROUND 5 SEC BY LATE THU AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 
AS OF 220 PM WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY LIGHT GRADIENT TO BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED
OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH A WEAK TROUGH INLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME N/NE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRIES TO WORK INTO OUR NORTHERN WATERS. SPEEDS AGAIN
SHOULD BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/DAG
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...CQD 
LONG TERM...CTC 
AVIATION...CTC/SK 
MARINE...CTC/SK/CQD