265 
FXUS61 KCAR 160811
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY AND CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA ERLY THIS AM CONT TO MOVE EWRD W/ COVERAGE
DECREASING DURING THE PAST FEW HRS. WITH THIS DECREASE IN
COVERAGE...LGTNG ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AS WELL... WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO DROP THE CURRENT FFW FOR PORTIONS OF SW PISCATAQUIS CNTY
SHORTLY BASED ON RECENT AND CURRENT TRENDS.

OTHRWS...WEAK SFC COLD FRONT AND TROF OF LOW PRES WILL CONT TO
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TDY. ONLY MODEST CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION TDY SHOULD BE MOSTLY GARDEN
VARIETY IN NATURE W/ SPC SHOWING OUR AREA IN JUST A GENERAL
OUTLOOK W/ THE STRONGER CONVECTION LIKELY LATER TUE (SEE SHORT
TERM SECTION BLO).

BY TNGT...THESE FEATURES HAVE MOVD E AND SE OF THE AREA W/ A VRY
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO BUILD BRIEFLY OVR THE REGION.
EXPECT A RATHER MUGGY NIGHT W/ PTCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA AND BEST
CHC POPS SE DURING THE EVE HRS AS THE WEAK SFC COLD FRONT EXITS
THIS AREA. NXT SYSTEM ALREADY COMING INTO THE PICTURE BY ERLY TUE
W/ CHC POPS FAR NWRN AREAS BY 12Z.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST AND WILL LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME STABLE CLOUD LAYERS
AND SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES THAT WILL LIMIT HEATING IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG
THE WARM FRONT FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS NORTHERN MAINE...EXPECT SOME
SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. WITH THIS DESTABILIZATION...NUMEROUS INGREDIENTS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOTH
0 TO 1 KM AND 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH VALUES
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE STORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING OVER
NORTHERN MAINE DURING THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. OTHER INGREDIENTS SUCH AS AN H850 LLJ...STEEP
LAPSE RATE PROFILES...USUALLY HIGH HELICITY...AN 850 THERMAL
RIDGE...DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND FORCING PROVIDED BY A
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT ALL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY
EVENTFUL LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF SUFFICIENT HEATING DOES OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. INCLUDED GUSTY WINDS WORDING IN FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL LOOKS BETTER FURTHER WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT ENHANCED WORDING FOR HAIL WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED
FOR THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

THIS VERY STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
MOVED OFF THE COAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND WILL FINALLY BREAK THE
WARM SPELL AS HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL DROP TO THE
70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY.
FIRST...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH IN THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT. SECOND...THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE COAST AND KEEP
CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME RAIN ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WITH REGARD TO THIS SECOND CONCERN...HAVE GONE WITH THE
MORE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO OF THE CLOUDS PUSHING OFFSHORE...BUT
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
COAST.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY...PLEASANT TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITY AND GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL. A
FEW LIGHT RAINSHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE
CROWN OF MAINE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT
INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TOWARDS 80F IN THE CWA IN A SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDS ONLY AT KBHB ATTM W/ IFR CONDS PSBL AT KBGR
NXT FEW HRS INTO THE ERLY AM. OTHRWS...ALL REMAINING SITES VFR
ATTM W/ MVFR IN PTCHY FOG/MIST/SHOWERS PSBL THRU THE ERLY AM HRS.
MAINLY VFR AT ALL THE TAF SITES TODAY INTO TNGT OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS THO KBHB SHOULD BE SLOW TO IMPROVE W/ IFR EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE. PTCHY FOG AND PSBL MVFR AGAIN PSBL
AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES LATER TNGT INTO ERLY TUE AM.

SHORT TERM: LLWS AND SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. 
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
AREAS OF FOG THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL.

SHORT TERM: SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND GUSTS REACHING 20 KTS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/MCW