463 
FXUS64 KMAF 151930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE IN EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF THE AREA AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BEGINS TO PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA.

THOUGH SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS WAVE...
THE WAVE SHOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES IS PROGGED BY MODELS ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ALONG WITH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THERE SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND VERY LITTLE CAP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. DESPITE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY... WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FOCUSED FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOR THE MOST PART
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. POPS WILL BE HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND ELEVATED HEATING WILL HELP TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE PLAINS...CONVECTION PATTERNS WILL LIKELY BE
DRIVEN BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO DRY OUT.

LOWER THICKNESSES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  92  69  91  /  10  20  10  30 
BIG SPRING TX              69  90  70  91  /  20  20  10  30 
CARLSBAD NM                66  95  70  95  /  10  20  10  30 
DRYDEN TX                  70  96  72  92  /  20  20  20  30 
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  95  70  93  /  10  20  20  30 
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  90  66  87  /  10  30  20  30 
HOBBS NM                   65  89  67  90  /  10  20  10  30 
MARFA TX                   57  88  60  85  /  10  50  30  40 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  91  70  92  /  10  20  10  30 
ODESSA TX                  70  92  71  93  /  10  20  10  30 
WINK TX                    70  97  72  96  /  10  20  10  30 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/05