927 
FXUS63 KEAX 150521
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1221 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2012


...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...


.DISCUSSION...

Short Term (Tonight through Monday)...

Despite a weak surface front drifting south across central IA the 
boundary layer remains lacking of any significant forcing mechanisms 
to generate precipitation. We are left with weak impulses embedded 
within the northwest flow and the arm of a subtropical plume of 
deeper moisture rotating to the northwest across southern MO to 
generate isolated afternoon convection. Think slight/low chance pops 
over northern MO and the far southeastern counties should cover any 
isolated cells that either form or drift into the region through the 
early evening hours. 

With the ongoing drought having depleted the soil moisture the 
afternoon dewpoints have been drying out vs increasing via 
evapotranspiration. Models have been too warm on overnight 
temperatures most nights and last night was especially telling. So 
opted to go slightly below model consensus and MET MOS lows for 
tonight and may not have lowered them enough.

For the past several days the models have been advertising the 
disturbed weather/shortwave that was nestled over LA/east TX would 
be absorbed/lifted north (tonight/Sunday) and then northwest through 
MO/KS (Sunday night/Monday). Current satellite imagery supports this 
trend and see no reason to doubt the overall trend. This should 
result in more cloud cover and isolated/widely scattered afternoon 
convection by Monday...possibly as early as late Sunday 
afternoon/evening over the far southern CWA. Have also cut back on 
max temperatures mainly south of the MO River on Monday owing to 
more cloud cover and deeper moisture.

MJ

Medium Range (Tuesday through Saturday)...

An upper level ridge extending from the Southeastern CONUS through 
the local area and into the Northern Plains will be the dominant 
feature heading into the medium range. With height rises associated 
with the ridge building over the area on Tuesday, high temperatures 
will achieve the upper 90s to near 100. The ridge will continue to 
build across the area on Wednesday however an upper trough digging 
from southeastern Canada into the northern Great Lakes will send a 
cold front sagging southward across Iowa. The question will be if 
this front can sag into the heart of the ridge and move into 
northern Missouri. The EC continues to hold the front across Iowa 
while the GEM sags the front further south developing thunderstorms 
across northern and eastern Missouri on Wednesday. With the GEM 
scenario a possibility, opted for slight chance POPs across portions 
of northern and central Missouri. On Thursday the models in more of 
an agreement that the front will be draped across the the forecast 
area with showers and thunderstorms developing across the CWA. As 
such went with chance POPs over the eastern portion of the forecast 
area where the best chance will occur and opted for slight chance 
POPs back to the MO/KS state line. By Friday the front appears to 
wash out across the area however the upper ridge continues to 
dominate keeping conditions dry for the end of the work week and 
into the weekend. Temperatures however, as previously stated, will 
remain hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s from Wednesday through 
Saturday.

73

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 06Z TAFS...VFR conditions to prevail through the next 24
hours. There is a chance of some widely scattered clouds with bases
around 5K feet...but with high pressure over the area and moisture
looking to stay southeast of the terminals...will carry SKC. The
winds should stay light and variable...but will monitor for this
afternoon when we could see south or southwest around 10 kts. Adolphson

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO EAX