072 
FXUS63 KILX 150420
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1120 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 825 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING SOME DECENT RAINFALL FOR A CHANGE. PEORIA...
BLOOMINGTON AND THE NWS AT LINCOLN RECEIVED OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN.
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS...BUT THOSE WERE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. LATEST SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THE 500 MB TROF AXIS RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WAS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN
OVER NW IL AND THAT WAS DRIFTING ESE AND MAY KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS THAT DID RECEIVE THE
RAINFALL TODAY WILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT
ZONE FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRENDS THIS EVENING SO
OTHER THAN THE USUAL TWEAKS WITH THE HOURLY TEMPS...NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE. AS A RESULT...NO ZONE UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED EARLY THIS
EVENING. 

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1115 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

FOG DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

ALL THE STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THAT
WOULD INCLUDE PIA...BMI AND CMI. DECATUR DID RECEIVE SOME VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SO WILL INCLUDE SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS STARTING AT
09Z. FURTHER NORTH...MVFR AND POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS
STARTING AT 09Z. WHAT FOG WE DO SEE OVERNIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSPATE SUNDAY MORNING BY 13 OR 14Z FOLLOWED BY A RAPID INCREASE
IN CUMULUS AFTR 16Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH DRY AIR MIX DOWN TO KEEP CLOUDS SCATTERED BUT THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY AT BMI AND CMI. CLOUD BASES WILL
RANGE FROM 4000-5000 FEET BY LATE MORNING WITH THE CUMULUS FIELD
DISSIPATING QUICKLY BY 00Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AND SSW AT 10 KTS OR LESS ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING.

SMITH
&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 236 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS CONTINUE...WITH VERY
LITTLE MOVEMENT UNDER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO THE NW THIS MORNING SHOWING UP AS A LITTLE WEAK VORTEX ON VIS
SAT IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THAT...HAVE MADE A COUPLE
OF CHANGES TO THE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN
THAT...FORECAST IS MOSTLY DRY BEYOND TONIGHT. NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP COMES MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ECMWF NOW HAVING SIMILAR ISSUE TO
THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS...SO KEEP SCALING BACK THE EXTENDED
POPS 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
FIRST CONCERN IS THE SMALL VORTEX TO THE NW MOVING NEAR THE REGION
IN THE OVERNIGHT. NEITHER HRRR NOR THE 4KM WRF ARE PICKING UP ON
THE SYSTEM...BUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS NOW BEEN A BIT
ALTERED... PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. FEEL LESS
LIKE THE SHOWERS AFTER 00Z WILL BE LIMITED TO REMNANTS FROM
TODAY...AND HAVE EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT. IN ANY SPOTS THAT CLEAR OUT IN THE
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HAS BEEN SIGNIF INCREASED BY THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING...AND HAVE PLACED THE MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS... MAINLY EAST OF I-55. TOMORROW...IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING SHOWERS...SOME SMALL POPS MOSTLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
THESE POPS ARE MOSTLY A PRODUCT OF PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
THE ACTIVITY IN THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WILL KEEP THEM IN FOR ANY
LINGERING OVERNIGHT PRECIP...BUT MOSTLY REFLECTIVE OF EARLY IN THE
DAY. 

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SCATTERED PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE
DROUGHT OVER THE REGION... PARTICULARLY WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN
THE WESTERN CONUS YET AGAIN...AND PUSHING 850MB TEMPS UP AND SFC
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES...HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO OVER GUIDANCE SINCE MODELS KEEP
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER IN ABSENCE OF REAL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP IN EXTENDED COME WITH WED NIGHT AND A PASSING TROF/SFC
BOUNDARY AS AN UPPER WAVE RIPPLES THROUGH THE 500MB FLOW ALONG THE
US/CAN BORDER. THIS FAR SOUTH...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
QUESTIONABLE...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF SFC CONVERGENCE. HAVE PULLED
BACK THE BLENDED POPS WHEREVER POSSIBLE. SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ALL THAT IS LIKELY IN THIS FORECAST...A VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF
AREA WILL SEE THE PRECIP.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$