National Weather Service Raw Text Product

883 
FXUS63 KTOP 012332
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
632 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE TROF APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST ATTM HAS STARTED 
TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER HAS ONLY 
HELPED BRING DOWN TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES WHILE EASTERN ZONES HAVE 
MADE IT WELL INTO THE UPPER 90S.

WITH AREA REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES...SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE 
TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND A SOURCE OF LIFT MOVING OVER THE 
MESOSCALE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG I70...WILL CARRY ISOLATED POPS 
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRONG 
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS PRODUCE COOLING RAINFALL INTO A VERY 
WARM AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO END BY 
MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES 
TO PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH A FEW DEGREES OF MID LEVEL 
COOLING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS DOWN JUST A FEW DEGREES 
FOR MONDAY. ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE FAR SE 
COUNTIES WHERE INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HELP INSTIGATE SOME 
PULSE STORMS AT PEAK HEATING/MIXING.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY 
REMNANT MCVS OR OUTFLOWS BUT AT THIS TIME HAVE THE REST OF THE 
FORECAST AREA DRY AND BREEZY.  

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EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH 
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE 
WILL BUILD AND CENTER OVER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH 
VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SIMILAR EACH DAY AND LITTLE CHANCE OF 
NOTABLE CLOUD COVER OR PRECIPITATION...AFTERNOON MAXIMUM 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 98 TO 103 DEGREES EACH DAY. 
MAX HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH THE 100-104 RANGE EACH DAY...JUST 
BELOW HEAT HEADLINE CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT INTRODUCE 
AFOREMENTIONED HEADLINES...HOWEVER STILL POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
HEAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR THOSE THAT PLAN TO RESIDE
OUTSIDE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME. MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST FOR
THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HINTING AT A COLD FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. THE EURO SHOWS A SLOWER
SOLUTION...KEEPING THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SIDED WITH THE EURO SOLUTION...CONTINUING THE DRY/HOT CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

BLAIR

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF MHK APPEARS TO
BE TRENDING DOWN AND LITTLE REASON TO EXPECT A LARGE UPTURN AT
THIS POINT. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD BE THE RULE.

65

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$