372 
FXUS65 KTFX 220324
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
924 PM MDT THU JUN 21 2012

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM
SOUTHWEST MONTANA INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
ON TRACK.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT WARMER AIR TO GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND WITH
THE WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...A FEW
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG/SEVERE SIDE. AT THIS TIME A WIDE
SPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT WE
CONTINUE TO UPDATE AS NECESSARY. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2325Z.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT WORKS IT WAY SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL MT 
TONIGHT. POCKETS OF MOISTURE ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER AND OVER FAR 
SOUTHWEST MT WILL BRING AREAS OF CEILINGS ABOVE FL150 THERE THIS 
EVENING...WHILE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WARANAUSKAS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 525 PM MDT THU JUN 21 2012/
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TODAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MONTANA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND HEATING NEARS
THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. ACROSS THE PLAINS THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN STABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT MAY BECOME MODIFIED
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE INCREASES. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS BUT INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING IF MOISTURE INCREASES ENOUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTH AND OUT OF THE REGION. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INSTABILITY AND STRONG WIND SHEAR IN PLACE
ONCE AGAIN. CONDITIONS SUNDAY ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO SATURDAY BUT
DRY LOWER LEVEL CONDITIONS MOVE FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL MONTANA
LIKELY LIMITING ANY DEVELOPMENT TO AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL BE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA VALLEYS
DRY OUT QUITE A BIT SUNDAY AND WINDS PICK UP CREATING SOME
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THAT WILL BE MONITORED. AS
MENTIONED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND ON THE RISE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SUNDAY REACHING THE LOW 90S ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUNDAY EVENING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH 
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST AND THIS WILL 
LEAVE THE ZONES UNDERNEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS WILL BE 
FALLING ALOFT AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST APPROACHES AND THE 
AIRMASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. GOOD SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE 
ALTHOUGH A LACK OF MOISTURE COULD INHIBIT CONVECTION. THE SAME 
GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL 
MOVE INTO THE MID LEVELS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE. 
THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SWING NORTH LATE MONDAY THROUGH 
TUESDAY...REMAINING MAINLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND OVER THE NORTHERN 
ROCKIES.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...NOT VERY COLD...WILL DROP 
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED DRY 
CONDITIONS COULD INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE LOW PRESSURE 
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ALBERTA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND 
FLATTEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL 
DROP CLOSER TOWARDS NORMAL WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL 
REMAIN QUITE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY WITH THE AIRMASS TRENDING WARMER...BUT REMAINING STABLE. 
ZELZER/BLANK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  51  79  55  83 /   0  10  30  20 
CTB  49  73  53  75 /   0  10  50  60 
HLN  52  83  54  89 /   0  10  30  20 
BZN  47  87  49  88 /   0  10  10  10 
WEY  42  79  44  78 /   0   0   0   0 
DLN  49  85  49  85 /   0  10  10  10 
HVR  52  79  58  82 /   0  10  50  30 
LWT  49  77  54  81 /   0  10  30  10 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS