299 
FXUS61 KCAR 081332
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
932 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CREATING
FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 
0930L UPDATE: WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF PISCATAQUIS,,,PENOBSCOT AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 100% FOR OUR ENTIRE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

640 AM UPDATE:
A LITTLE PATCH OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY TOWARD PRESQUE ISLE EARLY THIS MORNING...SO
RAISED EARLY MORNING POPS TO 40 PERCENT HERE. TWEAKED AREAS OF FOG
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS TO MATCH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. FOG WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY INLAND...BUT A BIT SLOWER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MADE SOME OTHER MINOR TWEAKS TO TODAY'S POPS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION:
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. 11-3.9 FOG CHANNEL
AT 315 AM SHOWING FOG ALONG THE WESTERN DOWNEAST COAST AS WELL AS
BETWEEN BANGOR AND HOULTON. EXPECT THE FOG TO FILL IN A BIT MORE
BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE.

COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO FIRE
LATE THIS MORNING AND AROUND NOON AND BEGIN OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING EAST INTO
THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND
COMING OFF THE OCEAN...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF TODAY'S
CONVECTION WILL BE SURFACE BASED RATHER THAN ELEVATED IN ALL AREAS
EXCEPT RIGHT NEAR THE COAST. THAT BEING SAID...JUST CANNOT SEE THE
STORMS BEING STRONG OR SEVERE. IF ANYTHING IS TO BECOME
STRONG...IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH WOODS AND
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. 

FOR TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS INTO A STEADIER
RAIN...WITH A DECENT SOAKING OF AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MOST
PLACES. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE AS
WELL...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN GOING LONGER THAN OTHERWISE
WOULD BE THE CASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. THE NEW LOW WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM12...GFS40....SREF AND ECMWF TO INITIALIZED POP GRIDS THEN HAVE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE NAM12 AND GMOS DURING DAY AND ONLY GMOS AT NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE GMOS AND HAVE INCREASED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE A FEW DEGREES. FOR QPF WILL BLEND THE GFS40 AND NAM12.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND BUILD
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL
GRIDS WITH GMOS. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS
MOSTLY FOR SMOOTHING. WILL ADJUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HIGHER BY
SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
FOG OVER MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING KBHB AND KBGR. FOG WILL
BE A BIT SLOWER TO BURN OFF ALONG THE COAST THAN INLAND.

EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO WITH LOCALIZED MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ALONG WITH EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY THEN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
LARGE AREA OF FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE FOG TO REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VSBY
LESS THAN 1 NM. CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KT AND
SEAS TO 4 FT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRANSITION TO GMOS WINDS. WILL LOWER WIND
SPEED BY 10 PERCENT. FOR WAVES WILL USE THE WNA/4 TO INITIALIZE
GRIDS. WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 1 FOOT TUESDAY TO BETTER FIT GMOS
WINDS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/FOSTER
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FOISY/FOSTER
MARINE...FOISY/FOSTER/MIGNONE