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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDRLX Product Timestamp: 2012-05-20 23:24 UTC
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857
FXUS61 KRLX 202324
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
724 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CLOSE BY TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD
FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN WASHES OUT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. VERY WARM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS WHICH HAVE FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW/ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCE EFFECTS.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. UPPER
LOW ALONG VIRGINIA COAST WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE TOWARDS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...ALSO BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP INTO THE REGION...AND CONTINUED
THAT TREND. MAY EVEN BE A BIT OF A DELAY IN START OF PRECIP ANYWAY
AS MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA MON NT. IT THEN SPLITS UP
TUE...THE NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT LIFTS NE INTO EASTERN CANADA
AND THEN MINORS OUT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT CLOSES
OFF OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY WED MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA MON EVE WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA AS THE
SYSTEM SPLITS UP...PRECLUDING MUCH OF A DEW POINT DROP. THERE IS
MUCH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO COMPARED WITH THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.
MOIST UNSTABLE AXIS ARRIVING FROM THE W MON EVE...ALONG WITH SURFACE
TROUGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA...SPELLS GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO 2 KJ / KG IN THE AXIS EARLY ON DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND A BUCK AND A THIRD WITH MEAN
FLOW AROUND TEN KNOTS. AS THE SYSTEM SPLITS LATE MON NT AND
TUE...FORCING BECOMES LESS FOCUSED IF NOT DISORGANIZED...SO HARD TO
DETERMINE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF CLUSTERS IN WHAT BECOMES KING OF
A COL AREA BETWEEN THE SPLITTING SYSTEMS RIGHT ON THRU WED NT. SLOW
MOVEMENT COULD BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY IF PW VALUES WIND UP HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FCST...BUT VALUES SHOULD ACTUALLY WANE A BIT THROUGH
WED NT.
USED MET OR BIAS CORRECTED MET ON LOWS EARLY ON AND BIAS CORRECTED
MOS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY SHRINKING DIURNAL RANGES A BIT
WITH APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN LIFTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA THU THRU FRI. THIS DECREASES POPS AND ALLOWS
FOR RISING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FCST TO
BUILD TO THE SW OF THE AREA RATHER THAN OVERTOP. GIVEN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AND TELECONNECTIONS...HPC KEEPS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEW
S/W ENERGY DROPPING DOWN E SIDE OF RIDGE OVER NE UNITED STATES JUST
N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE FRONT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY SUN. PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TO A SIGNIFICANT
EXTENT.
BLENDED IN HPC FOR MOST TEMPERATURES THOUGH CONCERNED ABOUT LOWER
MEX NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS...GIVEN UPPER HIGH NOT RIGHT OVER
THE AREA...AT LEAST FOR LONG.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 18Z MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE EAST WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF CATEGORY REDUCTIONS DUE
TO FOG MAY VARY. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/21/12
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...50/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50
939
FXUS61 KRLX 202325 CCA
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
724 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CLOSE BY TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD
FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN WASHES OUT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA. VERY WARM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS WHICH HAVE FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW/ELEVATED
HEAT SOURCE EFFECTS.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. UPPER
LOW ALONG VIRGINIA COAST WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE TOWARDS THE REGION
ON MONDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST.
IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY...ALSO BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. OVERALL
TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP INTO THE REGION...AND CONTINUED
THAT TREND. MAY EVEN BE A BIT OF A DELAY IN START OF PRECIP ANYWAY
AS MODELS CONTINUING TO INDICATE PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV FOR TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA MON NT. IT THEN SPLITS UP
TUE...THE NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT LIFTS NE INTO EASTERN CANADA
AND THEN MINORS OUT...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENT CLOSES
OFF OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY WED MORNING. ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE AREA MON EVE WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA AS THE
SYSTEM SPLITS UP...PRECLUDING MUCH OF A DEW POINT DROP. THERE IS
MUCH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO COMPARED WITH THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.
MOIST UNSTABLE AXIS ARRIVING FROM THE W MON EVE...ALONG WITH SURFACE
TROUGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA...SPELLS GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CAPE VALUES CLOSE TO 2 KJ / KG IN THE AXIS EARLY ON DROP
OVERNIGHT...BUT PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND A BUCK AND A THIRD WITH MEAN
FLOW AROUND TEN KNOTS. AS THE SYSTEM SPLITS LATE MON NT AND
TUE...FORCING BECOMES LESS FOCUSED IF NOT DISORGANIZED...SO HARD TO
DETERMINE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF CLUSTERS IN WHAT BECOMES KING OF
A COL AREA BETWEEN THE SPLITTING SYSTEMS RIGHT ON THRU WED NT. SLOW
MOVEMENT COULD BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY IF PW VALUES WIND UP HIGHER
THAN CURRENTLY FCST...BUT VALUES SHOULD ACTUALLY WANE A BIT THROUGH
WED NT.
USED MET OR BIAS CORRECTED MET ON LOWS EARLY ON AND BIAS CORRECTED
MOS TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY SHRINKING DIURNAL RANGES A BIT
WITH APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN LIFTING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA THU THRU FRI. THIS DECREASES POPS AND ALLOWS
FOR RISING TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FCST TO
BUILD TO THE SW OF THE AREA RATHER THAN OVERTOP. GIVEN AMPLIFIED
PATTERN AND TELECONNECTIONS...HPC KEEPS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEW
S/W ENERGY DROPPING DOWN E SIDE OF RIDGE OVER NE UNITED STATES JUST
N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE FRONT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY SUN. PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN TO A SIGNIFICANT
EXTENT.
BLENDED IN HPC FOR MOST TEMPERATURES THOUGH CONCERNED ABOUT LOWER
MEX NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS...GIVEN UPPER HIGH NOT RIGHT OVER
THE AREA...AT LEAST FOR LONG.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 18Z MON AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE EAST WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF CATEGORY REDUCTIONS DUE
TO FOG MAY VARY. TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 05/21/12
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...50/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...50